20260108-国泰期货-商品期权日报_11页_1mb

报告摘要

2026年1月8日商品期权日报总结

核心内容概览

本日报主要涵盖农产品、能源化工、黑色金属和金属类商品的期货与期权市场数据，包括收盘价、涨跌幅、成交量、持仓量、PCR（Put/Call Ratio）及期权量化指标如平值波动率、HV10、HV20、Skew等。以下为各板块的详细分析。

一、农产品市场分析

1. 期货市场统计

品种	主力合约	收盘价	涨跌幅	主力成交量	变化	主力持仓量	变化
玉米	c2603	2266	+18	726,670	+35,209	1,034,386	+22,891
豆粕	m2605	2782	-29	1,282,896	-80,42	2,281,609	+31,418
菜粕	rm2605	2358	-61	701,628	+165,257	785,807	+64,896
棕榈油	p2605	8612	+50	630,230	+176,298	393,894	+326
豆油	y2605	7944	-14	258,818	-38,383	664,893	+20,895
菜油	oi2605	8956	-139	309,993	+20,169	248,582	+20,113
花生	pk2603	8046	-26	75,414	-68,988	167,556	+2,854
豆一	a2605	4387	-17	169,882	-100,616	270,720	-2,585
豆二	b2605	3510	-26	107,223	-23,864	185,579	+6,385
白糖	sr2605	5279	-2	218,370	-13,539	429,678	-10,268
棉花	cf2605	14740	-295	653,184	+35,095	862,891	-62,574
苹果	ap2605	9531	-52	77,852	-18,544	122,541	-11,108
红枣	cj2605	9075	-75	119,887	-55,307	121,401	+3,300
鸡蛋	jd2603	3009	-2	233,283	+22,051	244,454	+284
玉米淀粉	cs2603	2546	+8	138,440	-20,870	197,201	+1,702
生猪	lh2603	11720	-65	88,413	-12,708	171,271	-144

2. 期权市场统计

品种	成交量	变化	成交量PCR	变化	持仓量	变化	持仓量PCR	变化
玉米主力	164,867	+34,057	0.2748	-0.0254	287,118	-9,900	0.4696	+0.0277
玉米	181,135	+34,402	0.275	-0.05	351,296	-7,696	0.5055	+0.024
豆粕主力	181,350	+25,263	0.3625	-0.0133	290,102	+6,861	0.5252	+0.0087
豆粕	293,054	+45,563	0.4453	+0.0026	433,950	+9,797	0.6248	+0.0069
菜粕主力	110,075	+33,313	0.9198	+0.509	73,527	+14,492	1.1591	+0.0445
菜粕	176,531	+40,072	1.1083	+0.5279	181,583	+18,811	1.4067	-0.0391
棕榈油主力	290,518	+95,842	0.3683	-0.463	88,200	+10,294	0.7596	-0.1176
棕榈油	321,443	+108,811	0.3798	-0.4431	132,403	+13,746	0.717	-0.0972
豆油主力	21,866	-9,45	0.5015	-0.94	23,980	-11,871	0.4828	-0.718
豆油	35,087	-6,258	0.5897	-0.5132	62,505	+3,097	0.8396	-0.015
菜油主力	33,006	+7,883	1.1903	+0.4278	24,465	+309	0.9842	+0.0478
菜油	39,367	+10,350	1.1393	+0.3618	37,431	+1,216	0.8901	+0.0494
花生主力	29,494	-30,306	0.2443	+0.0676	94,511	-648	0.4197	+0.0065
花生	33,289	-32,752	0.2411	+0.0697	118,690	-67	0.4117	+0.0039
豆一主力	49,237	-27,390	0.3446	+0.0865	51,660	+1,864	1.0166	-0.0186
豆一	60,013	-31,193	0.3729	+0.0825	70,412	+3,179	0.9456	-0.0433
豆二主力	62,434	+19,923	0.4515	+0.0979	49,096	+1,631	0.4943	-0.0366
豆二	65,146	+20,286	0.4494	+0.0946	57,321	+2,012	0.487	-0.0369
白糖主力	66,920	-4,935	0.2906	+0.0596	107,785	+1,874	0.6038	-0.0237
白糖	114,977	-14,532	0.279	+0.0035	257,411	+7,583	0.5598	-0.0152
棉花主力	150,579	-20,821	0.5432	+0.1448	186,977	+6,674	0.819	+0.0018
棉花	258,958	-8,668	0.5141	+0.0815	470,090	+24,493	0.8586	+0.0175
苹果主力	4,417	-3,231	1.4704	+0.3547	21,435	+184	1.2947	+0.0267
苹果	7,247	-6,021	1.4133	+0.3981	37,077	+543	1.4275	+0.0101
红枣主力	13,940	-1,792	0.1587	-0.0093	37,723	+572	0.3691	-0.0197
红枣	26,154	-2,566	0.0999	-0.0108	64,939	+1,698	0.2799	-0.0125
鸡蛋主力	78,171	+8,553	0.3932	-0.0142	100,291	+1,144	0.3934	+0.005
鸡蛋	101,328	+6,634	0.356	-0.0135	156,521	+4,105	0.3637	+0.0021
淀粉主力	17,582	-649	0.2059	+0.0431	26,690	+614	0.3018	+0.0385
淀粉	19,746	-1,657	0.213	+0.0359	31,344	+405	0.3384	+0.04

3. 期权量化指标

品种	主力合约	剩余交易日	平值波动率	变化	60日分位数	HV10	HV20	Skew	变化	60日分位数
玉米	c2603	30	12.04%	-0.23%	96.67%	10.89%	9.15%	13.77%	-1.07%	73.33%
豆粕	m2605	66	12.75%	-0.24%	63.33%	13.16%	10.34%	20.5%	+0.62%	95.0%
菜粕	rm2603	24	23.08%	+2.77%	100.0%	20.1%	15.69%	-1.89%	-11.27%	15.0%
棕榈油	p2602	8	19.64%	+0.85%	100.0%	13.12%	14.5%	17.18%	+11.89%	100.0%
豆油	y2603	30	12.53%	+0.79%	78.33%	6.57%	9.1%	6.35%	+7.8%	78.33%
菜油	oi2603	24	18.99%	+1.44%	100.0%	13.64%	17.24%	-6.09%	-2.33%	43.33%
花生	pk2603	24	11.42%	-0.48%	63.33%	8.13%	7.66%	41.84%	-7.59%	95.0%
豆一	a2603	30	13.21%	-1.15%	98.33%	14.72%	14.04%	21.18%	+1.19%	100.0%
豆二	b2602	8	12.69%	-0.45%	65.0%	11.17%	12.49%	1.08%	-2.94%	33.33%
白糖	sr2603	24	10.88%	-0.5%	98.33%	10.81%	10.95%	0.79%	-3.44%	51.67%
棉花	cf2603	24	15.41%	-3.84%	96.67%	17.26%	12.71%	40.68%	-2.47%	88.33%
苹果	ap2605	52	24.93%	-0.08%	90.0%	25.18%	22.21%	-5.26%	-1.58%	66.67%
红枣	cj2605	52	22.25%	+0.34%	71.67%	13.56%	15.28%	14.3%	+0.84%	70.0%
鸡蛋	jd2602	8	21.56%	-0.07%	93.33%	11.22%	10.53%	20.81%	+0.65%	100.0%
淀粉	cs2603	30	10.18%	-0.36%	60.0%	10.81%	8.74%	4.72%	-4.08%	53.33%
生猪	lh2603	30	20.61%	-1.03%	48.33%	10.55%	9.78%	27.42%	-4.58%	93.33%

二、能源化工市场分析

1. 期货市场统计

品种	主力合约	收盘价	涨跌幅	主力成交量	变化	主力持仓量	变化
PTA	ta2605	5086	-64	1,323,964	-312,471	1,423,000	+7,012
乙二醇	eg2605	3846	-33	272,372	-78,103	305,115	+5,267
橡胶	ru2605	16120	-60	356,190	-23,071	196,468	-3,654
聚乙烯	l2605	6628	-14	568,961	+2,463	505,299	-379
聚丙烯	pp2605	6484	-2	464,634	-20,401	511,792	-8,586
甲醇	ma2605	2231	-36	1,390,410	-467,255	870,199	+51,352
苯乙烯	eb2602	6807	-21	366,196	+25,629	253,761	-24,914
LPG	pg2603	4103	-36	36,134	-32,436	73,469	+23,698
PVC	v2605	4905	-67	1,379,448	-173,496	1,036,668	+40,75
原油	sc2602	416.2	-0.1	70,288	-40,711	33,068	+98
BR橡胶	br2603	12230	+45	131,952	+33,140	88,217	+8,281
对二甲苯	px2603	7168	-118	361,354	-33,555	235,391	-2,108
烧碱	sh2603	2218	-43	449,364	-64,345	183,748	+21,672
纯碱	sa2605	1239	-32	2,109,438	-156,167	1,172,456	+131,236
短纤	pf2603	6490	-58	111,180	-24,035	145,281	+46,064
尿素	ur2605	1776	-14	130,189	-21,807	232,651	-335
玻璃	fg2605	1163	+15	2,548,725	-247,519	1,119,812	+67,495
原木	lg2603	778	-3	8,400	+773	12,144	-253
瓶片	pr2603	6020	-44	52,675	-8,594	42,215	+1,47
纯苯	bz2603	5442	-22	14,115	-4,094	29,661	+852
燃料油	fu2603	2458	+21	614,800	-189,995	187,667	-3,736
沥青	bu2603	3132	-28	244,582	-65,167	224,334	+2,081
纸浆	sp2603	5504	-92	422,430	+18,866	229,326	+10,835
双胶纸	op2603	4212	-44	13,018	-5,000	17,010	-50

2. 期权市场统计

品种	成交量	变化	成交量PCR	变化	持仓量	变化	持仓量PCR	变化
PTA主力	595,994	-96,892	0.8353	+0.2015	288,941	-8,080	0.9045	-0.1348
PTA	679,950	-98,149	0.7931	+0.1883	463,724	+3,404	0.951	-0.0799
乙二醇主力	62,318	-28,458	0.418	+0.1241	77,574	+2,952	0.3744	-0.0046
乙二醇	71,704	-28,616	0.4025	+0.1013	95,889	+3,450	0.3856	-0.0078
橡胶主力	17,516	-1	0.3057	-0.0444	34,702	-1,580	0.3964	+0.0093
橡胶	20,052	-1,168	0.2921	-0.0312	39,851	-1,586	0.3905	+0.0108
聚乙烯主力	55,981	+6,375	0.3623	-0.0324	54,320	+168	0.5741	+0.0478
聚乙烯	70,817	+4,777	0.4281	-0.0246	76,665	+2,639	0.5485	+0.0414
聚丙烯主力	56,591	-18,113	0.3596	-0.0751	68,264	+975	0.5633	-0.0177
聚丙烯	70,535	-21,585	0.4247	-0.0169	99,273	+3,474	0.5697	-0.0147
甲醇主力	529,901	-74,601	0.5009	+0.0751	247,557	+11,984	0.4959	-0.1461
甲醇	627,054	-87,551	0.5117	+0.0725	406,794	+32,279	0.5696	-0.1023
苯乙烯主力	229,188	+41,695	0.4153	-0.0297	116,358	+2,951	0.4061	-0.0387
苯乙烯	239,710	+42,958	0.4134	-0.0251	129,484	+4,514	0.423	-0.0409
LPG主力	40,589	-21,662	0.4796	-0.0245	30,455	+459	0.8296	-0.018
LPG	45,117	-20,112	0.4844	-0.0304	39,995	+1,532	0.8661	-0.022
PVC主力	194,696	-119,807	0.4519	+0.1607	197,943	-4,279	0.3795	+0.0022
PVC	246,280	-144,671	0.4228	+0.123	342,766	-15,54	0.3575	+0.0133
原油主力	72,414	-59,625	0.7078	+0.1635	43,342	+339	0.4389	-0.0194
原油	80,526	-66,543	0.6615	+0.1335	59,094	+1,298	0.4328	-0.0171
BR橡胶主力	87,690	+41,883	0.357	-0.0366	24,224	+5,605	1.2482	+0.1865
BR橡胶	92,855	+44,501	0.3759	-0.0325	28,274	+6,392	1.2184	+0.2093
PX主力	40,598	-10,642	0.7448	+0.264	63,662	+3,046	1.5622	-0.1664
PX	45,625	-8,510	0.7252	+0.2464	71,423	+3,697	1.4226	-0.1584
烧碱主力	206,063	-185,93	0.6441	+0.2129	93,433	+6,696	0.3613	-0.1473
烧碱	258,093	-80,68	0.6401	+0.2018	136,668	+9,959	0.4196	-0.1068
纯碱主力	701,041	-150,154	0.5398	+0.1829	287,915	+16,052	0.4909	-0.1188
纯碱	929,554	-220,826	0.4748	+0.1348	600,277	+29,318	0.3744	-0.0348
短纤主力	32,416	-5,176	1.0014	+0.3531	37,