2012年-世界发展银行全球_Mozambique_Cashew_Reforms_Revisited_40页_1mb

Mozambique Cashew Reforms Revisited - Summary

Core Content

This paper revisits the cashew policy reforms in Mozambique initiated in the early 1990s, evaluating their impact on the sector's performance over two decades. The reforms aimed to liberalize the cashew industry by removing export controls and introducing export taxes, while also attempting to promote a more efficient and competitive processing industry. However, the reforms did not achieve their intended outcomes, and the cashew sector has continued to face challenges despite various interventions.

Main Points

• Context of Cashew Production in Mozambique:
  Mozambique was a major cashew producer during the 1960s and 1970s, with a significant portion of the world's production. The industry was characterized by large, capital-intensive processing factories, which were later nationalized and disrupted during the civil war.

• Impact of the Civil War and Nationalization:
  The civil war and nationalization of processing facilities in the 1970s led to a significant decline in production and exports. By 1990/01, Mozambique's cashew exports were only worth US$15 million, or 2.8 percent of global exports.

• Reform Process:
  The reforms, starting in the early 1990s, aimed to liberalize the sector by removing export bans and introducing export taxes. These reforms were controversial, as they pitted new business elites (connected to political leadership) against donor interests and smallholder producers.

• Outcomes of the Reforms:

  • The reforms initially led to higher producer prices and increased output.
  • However, due to a lack of consensus on the reforms and non-price support arrangements, the sector was not able to withstand international price shocks.
  • The processing industry, particularly the capital-intensive ones, collapsed after the 2000 price crash.
  • Donors, including the World Bank, focused more on supporting the processing industry rather than smallholder production, leading to continued low support for farmers.

• Post-Reform Developments:

  • By 2007/08, exports had increased to 44 thousand tons of raw cashew equivalent, but this was still lower than pre-reform levels.
  • Real producer prices remained relatively low compared to the peak in the late 1990s.
  • New labor-intensive processing plants emerged, supported by donors and international agencies, which improved efficiency and helped revive the industry.

• Challenges and Limitations:

  • The reforms did not result in significant long-term improvements in the sector.
  • The lack of support for smallholder producers and the failure to establish a comprehensive institutional framework hindered the reforms' effectiveness.
  • Currency appreciation and policy uncertainty further constrained the sector's growth.

Key Information

• Reform Timeline:

  • 1991/92: Limited raw cashew exports allowed, with a 60% export tax.
  • 1994/95: Export tax reduced to 35%.
  • 1995/96: Export tax further reduced to 20%.
  • 1999/00: Export tax frozen at 14%, but international prices peaked.
  • 2000/01: International prices collapsed by over 50%, leading to a sharp decline in exports.
  • 2007/08: International prices began to recover, and exports increased again.

• Sector Performance:

  • Cashew exports increased by 86% from 1993/94 to 2007/08, but the share of global exports remained low (1.6%).
  • Real producer prices increased significantly during the early 1990s but did not recover to pre-reform levels.
  • The processing industry saw a shift from capital-intensive to labor-intensive methods after the 2000 price crash.

• Stakeholder Dynamics:

  • Processors, especially those that had bought privatized factories, resisted the reforms and demanded continued protection.
  • Donors, including the World Bank, focused on supporting processing rather than smallholder production.
  • Smallholder producers, who were the intended beneficiaries, received minimal non-price support and were largely disorganized.

• Institutional Failures:

  • INCAJU, the state agency responsible for supporting the cashew industry, was privatized but continued to function as a quasi-parastatal.
  • It failed to provide effective support to smallholder producers despite its programs for spraying and replanting.
  • The lack of a common institutional framework for pricing and non-price support contributed to the sector's instability.

• Conclusion:
  The reforms were not fully successful in achieving their intended goals. While they led to some short-term improvements in producer prices and exports, the sector did not recover to its former levels. The failure to support smallholder producers and the lack of institutional consensus were key factors in the sector's underperformance.

Key Figures and Data

• Table 1 shows the development of key indicators from 1993/94 to 2007/08:
  • Real exchange rates declined and then appreciated significantly.
  • Raw cashew export prices fluctuated, with a sharp decline in 2000/01.
  • Producer prices increased, but real producer prices remained relatively stable.
  • Producers' share of export prices increased but was still below pre-reform levels.
  • Export volumes increased, but not to the levels forecasted in the early 2000s.

Summary of Findings

• The reforms led to higher producer prices and increased output initially.
• The lack of consensus and non-price support for smallholders limited the sector's resilience to international price shocks.
• The processing industry shifted from capital-intensive to labor-intensive methods after the 2000 price crash.
• Despite recent improvements, the cashew industry in Mozambique has not regained its former glory and remains a minor player in the global market.

Annexes

• Annex I: Discusses global developments in the cashew sector since 1990.
• Annex II: Analyzes data problems in Mozambique and how the numbers in the paper are derived.
• Annex III: Summarizes developments after 1990 in a timeline format.
• Annex IV: Shows the relationship between India's processed kernel export prices and Mozambique's raw cashew export prices, arguing against the idea of monopsonistic power.
• Annex V: Explains differences in processing technologies and the state of Mozambique's processing plants during the reforms.
• Annex VI: Demonstrates that different deflators do not significantly affect the estimation of real producer prices.