2017全球风电报告（英文版）_72页-3mb

Global Wind Report Summary (2018)

Core Content

This report from the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) provides an overview of the global wind energy industry in 2017, market forecasts for 2018-2022, and highlights key emerging markets such as Argentina, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam that are expected to play a significant role in the future of the industry.

Main Points

• Global Wind Installations (2017):

  • 52.5 GW of new wind power was installed globally in 2017, slightly less than the 2016 figure of 54.6 GW.
  • Total global installed capacity reached 539 GW.
  • Offshore wind installations reached 4,334 MW, a 87% increase from 2016, and accounted for 18,814 MW globally.
  • Offshore wind represented 3.5% of cumulative installed capacity, but its growth is rapid.

• Market Trends:

  • Wind power is transitioning to a fully commercialized, unsubsidized model, competing with fossil and nuclear energy.
  • Hybrid wind/solar/storage plants are becoming more common, providing clean, reliable 24/7 power.
  • Battery storage is increasingly replacing peaker plants in some markets.
  • The use of blockchain for peer-to-peer power trading is emerging in micro-grid systems.
  • The cost of wind power continues to decline, with record low prices in Mexico (under US$ 0.02/kWh) and the first 'zero-bid' offers in offshore wind in Germany.

• Key Markets in 2017:

  • China: Installed 19.7 GW, the largest in the world, though slightly less than 2016.
  • India: Installed 4 GW, breaking its own record, and is expected to grow rapidly in 2019.
  • Europe: Set new records, with Germany, the UK, France, Belgium, Ireland, and Croatia leading. Offshore segment reached 3,148 MW in the EU, with total European installations at 16,803 MW.
  • United States: Installed 7 GW, surviving the new tax bill with minimal impact.
  • Mexico: Installed over 1,000 MW, with a newly reformed market ready for expansion.
  • Argentina: Achieved a 3 GW pipeline with strong government support and a new renewable energy program (RenovAr).
  • Vietnam: Has excellent wind resources and is targeting 800 MW by 2020, 2,000 MW by 2024, and 6,000 MW by 2030.
  • South Africa: Installed 618 MW, and signed PPAs for tenders after a two-year delay.
  • Australia: Installed 245 MW, with a 2.8 GW pipeline to meet 2020 targets.
  • Brazil: Installed over 2 GW, with a new auction in December 2017 and more scheduled for 2018.

Key Emerging Markets

Argentina

• Potential: Argentina has immense wind potential, enough to supply Latin America several times over.
• Government Support: The RenovAr program set targets of 8% by 2017 and 20% by 2025.
• Pipeline: A 3 GW pipeline was created through successful tenders in 2016 and 2017.
• Future Outlook: Expected to be the second-largest market in South America by 2020, with further auctions and OEM investments.
• Challenges: Political and fiscal instability remains a risk, but recent regulatory changes and investor confidence are positive signs.

Russia

• Wind Potential: Russia has an estimated 80,000 TWh/yr of wind potential, far exceeding global consumption.
• Government Initiatives: The National Renewable Energy Program (NREP) was launched in 2016, with a focus on local content and technology development.
• Pipeline: A 2.8 GW pipeline is in place, with a new tender expected in 2018 for an additional 830 MW.
• Challenges: Political and economic uncertainty remains, but the potential for growth is significant.
• Industry Involvement: Major players like Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, and Fortum are active in the market.

Saudi Arabia

• Wind Potential: Excellent wind resources, especially on the west coast (Red Sea).
• Government Initiatives: The National Renewable Energy Program (NREP) aims for 3 GW of renewables by 2020 and 9.5 GW by 2023.
• Pipeline: A 400 MW wind tender is in the pipeline, alongside solar projects.
• Challenges: High local content requirements and lack of transparency in regulations.
• Potential: A potentially big market with strategic location near Europe and the ability to act quickly.

Vietnam

• Wind Resources: Vietnam has some of the best wind resources in Southeast Asia.
• Government Targets: Aims to install 800 MW by 2020, 2,000 MW by 2024, and 6,000 MW by 2030.
• Pipeline: A 2.8 GW pipeline is in place, with offshore development in shallow coastal waters around the Mekong Delta.
• Challenges: Limited local financing and non-bankable PPAs from Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) increase risk.
• Future Outlook: Expected to develop quickly, though it may take time to clear regulatory hurdles.

Key Information

• Global Wind Market: Wind energy is now operating on a commercial basis in more than 90 countries, with 30 countries having over 1,000 MW installed and 9 having over 10,000 MW.
• Cost Trends: Wind power costs continue to fall, with Mexico achieving record low prices and offshore wind seeing 'subsidy-free' tenders.
• Policy Shifts: Many countries are moving away from support schemes, creating policy gaps that may affect 2018 installations.
• Industry Consolidation: Increased competition has led to tighter margins and consolidation among equipment and service providers.
• Technological Development: The industry is evolving with more advanced analytics, digitalization, and smart energy assets.
• Investor Confidence: Despite risks, investors are showing interest in emerging markets, especially with the promise of long-term growth and profitability.

Conclusion

The global wind industry is transitioning to a fully commercial model, with a strong focus on cost efficiency and technological innovation. Emerging markets such as Argentina, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam are poised to become significant players in the future, although they face unique challenges. The report suggests that these markets may experience substantial growth, but the risks involved are high. The future of the industry will depend on how these markets manage their transition, attract investment, and implement supportive policies.