2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Compensation_of_Regional_Unemployment_in_Housing_Markets_26页_401kb

报告摘要

Summary of "Compensation of Regional Unemployment in Housing Markets"

Core Content

This paper investigates the persistence of regional unemployment differentials in Europe by proposing that workers in high-unemployment regions are compensated through housing markets, rather than through wage adjustments. It challenges the traditional wage curve literature, which suggests a negative correlation between unemployment and wages, and questions why such differentials remain persistent despite this.

The authors hypothesise that housing markets play a crucial role in compensating workers for adverse labour market conditions. They present a theoretical model of a core-periphery structure, where wages are set at the national level through centralised wage bargaining. In this model, regional unemployment differentials arise due to differences in productivity and capital endowments. The paper argues that in equilibrium, workers in high-unemployment periphery regions are compensated by lower housing prices, which offset the lower wages.

Empirical analysis is conducted using city-level data from the European Urban Audit (1999–2003) and a housing demand survey in the Netherlands. The findings support the idea that housing prices are negatively correlated with unemployment rates, with an average elasticity of about -0.3. In the Netherlands, a similar negative relationship is observed when controlling for housing heterogeneity, reinforcing the hypothesis that housing markets are a significant source of compensation.

The paper also discusses the role of housing market rigidities and durability in sustaining regional unemployment differentials. These characteristics can create short-run compensating differentials that are larger than those in long-run equilibrium, thereby influencing migration patterns and unemployment levels.

Main Points

Persistent regional unemployment in Europe is not fully explained by wage adjustments alone.
Compensating differentials in housing markets may offset lower wages in high-unemployment regions.
Centralised wage bargaining leads to wage rigidity, which can result in unemployment in peripheral regions.
Housing prices are lower in high-unemployment regions, providing a form of compensation for workers.
The elasticity of housing prices to unemployment is estimated to be around -0.3, consistent with wage curve literature.
Housing market inelasticity and durability can sustain unemployment differentials even in the face of wage adjustments.
Empirical evidence from the European Urban Audit and a Dutch housing demand survey supports the compensating differentials hypothesis.
The no-arbitrage condition implies that housing costs should reflect the trade-off between wages, unemployment, and amenities.

Key Information

Theoretical Model: A core-periphery model with centralised wage bargaining is used to demonstrate how unemployment can be offset by lower housing prices.
Empirical Findings:
- A negative relationship between unemployment and average house prices is found in all 9 European countries in the sample.
- The elasticity of house prices to unemployment ranges from -0.4 to -0.6 in some countries.
- Controlling for income and amenities, the elasticity is around -0.3, which is consistent with wage curve estimates.
Policy Implications:
- Regional support programs should account for compensating differentials in housing markets.
- Unemployment benefits may need to be adjusted to reflect regional housing price levels.
- Housing supply rigidities may contribute to prolonged regional unemployment differentials.

Structure

Introduction: Introduces the puzzle of persistent regional unemployment differentials and the hypothesis of compensation through housing markets.
Equilibrium Relationship: Presents a theoretical model showing how regional unemployment and housing prices are interrelated in equilibrium.
Compensation and Adjustment: Explains how housing market characteristics such as inelastic supply and durability affect regional unemployment.
Empirical Analysis:
- European Urban Audit Data: Provides evidence of a negative relationship between unemployment and housing prices across multiple countries.
- Housing Demand Survey Data: Supports the findings using micro-level data from the Netherlands.
Conclusions and Policy Implications: Summarises the key findings and discusses their implications for regional policy and housing market regulation.