2023-10-26-IMF-地理经济碎片化与商品市场（英）_78页_2mb

The IMF working paper analyzes the economic impact of geoeconomic fragmentation on worldwide commodity trade. Using a unique dataset of 48 key commodities and a partial equilibrium framework, it finds that mineral markets critical for clean energy and specific agricultural markets are highly vulnerable to trade disruptions. Fragmentation leads to large price volatilities due to market concentration and limited supply flexibility. At the global level, surplus losses are modest but significant heterogeneity exists across countries. The paper warns that ongoing fragmentation risks pose substantial challenges to global economic stability, particularly for climate goals and food security.