20160825-大华银行-FX_Insights_12页_1mb
报告摘要
FX Insights Summary
Core Content
This document provides a detailed FX market outlook and analysis for various currency pairs as of 25 August 2016. It includes both short-term (24-hour) and medium-term (1-3 weeks) views, supported by price targets, support and resistance levels, and recent market movements. The analysis is conducted by UOB Group's Global Economics & Markets Research team and highlights key economic factors influencing the market.
Main Currency Pairs and Outlooks
USD/SGD: 1.3540
- Outlook: Bullish
- Target: 1.3645/50
- 24-Hour View:
- USD rebounded above 1.3550, with upward momentum improving.
- A move back below 1.3470 would indicate a failure in the bullish outlook.
- Support Levels: 1.3490, 1.3470
- Resistance Levels: 1.3580, 1.3640
EUR/SGD: 1.5255
- Outlook: Bullish
- Target: 1.5325/1.5400
- 24-Hour View:
- EUR traded sideways within a narrower range.
- Further consolidation is expected, likely between 1.5215 and 1.5285.
- Support Levels: 1.5235, 1.5190
- Resistance Levels: 1.5325, 1.5400
GBP/SGD: 1.7935
- Outlook: Bullish
- Target: 1.8015
- 24-Hour View:
- GBP exceeded the 1.7940 resistance and reached an overnight high of 1.7969.
- Overbought conditions suggest a slower pace of further gains.
- Support Levels: 1.7860, 1.7800
- Resistance Levels: 1.8015, 1.8115
AUD/SGD: 1.0310
- Outlook: Neutral
- Target: 1.0220/1.0360
- 24-Hour View:
- AUD dipped but rebounded quickly, indicating easing downward pressure.
- Sidewalk consolidation is expected, likely between 1.0220 and 1.0360.
- Support Levels: 1.0260, 1.0220
- Resistance Levels: 1.0335, 1.0360
JPY/SGD: 1.3475
- Outlook: Bullish
- Target: 1.3550
- 24-Hour View:
- JPY edged above 1.3500 but quickly eased off.
- Consolidation is expected, likely within a 1.3440/1.3505 range.
- Support Levels: 1.3440, 1.3390
- Resistance Levels: 1.3510, 1.3550
USD/MYR: 4.0350
- Outlook: Neutral
- Target: 4.0350
- 24-Hour View:
- USD touched a high of 4.0410 but ended at 4.0350.
- A daily close above 4.0350 is preferred before turning bullish.
- Support Levels: 4.0100, 4.0000
- Resistance Levels: 4.0410, 4.0680
USD/THB: 34.63
- Outlook: Bearish
- Target: 34.25/34.64
- 24-Hour View:
- USD held above the recent low of 34.53, indicating a loss in downward momentum.
- A break above 34.72 would suggest a corrective rebound.
- Support Levels: 34.53, 34.58
- Resistance Levels: 34.72, 34.80
USD/CNH: 6.6690
- Outlook: Neutral
- Target: 6.6905
- 24-Hour View:
- USD showed improved upward momentum.
- A clear break above 6.6750 is needed before turning bullish.
- Support Levels: 6.6550, 6.6600
- Resistance Levels: 6.6750, 6.6905
CNH/SGD: 0.2032
- Outlook: Bullish
- Target: 0.2039
- 24-Hour View:
- CNH exceeded the immediate target of 0.2033.
- The next target is at 0.2039.
- Support Levels: 0.2022, 0.2026
- Resistance Levels: 0.2035, 0.2039
EUR/USD: 1.1265
- Outlook: Bullish
- Target: 1.1430/1.1435
- 24-Hour View:
- EUR dipped to 1.1242, taking out the 1.1265/70 support.
- A sustained move below 1.1220 is unlikely.
- Support Levels: 1.1240, 1.1190
- Resistance Levels: 1.1310/15, 1.1365/1.1430
GBP/USD: 1.3235
- Outlook: Bullish
- Target: 1.3370/75
- 24-Hour View:
- GBP exceeded the target of 1.3250/55, reaching 1.3273.
- A move back below 1.3100 would indicate a failure in the bullish outlook.
- Support Levels: 1.3195, 1.3150
- Resistance Levels: 1.3275, 1.3370
AUD/USD: 0.7615
- Outlook: Neutral
- Target: 0.7545/50
- 24-Hour View:
- AUD touched a low of 0.7588 but rebounded quickly.
- Sidewalk consolidation is expected, likely between 0.7585 and 0.7635.
- Support Levels: 0.7585, 0.7545
- Resistance Levels: 0.7630, 0.7660
NZD/USD: 0.7315
- Outlook: Neutral
- Target: 0.7170/0.7350
- 24-Hour View:
- NZD rebounded from a low of 0.7269.
- Further consolidation is expected, likely within a 0.7170/0.7350 range.
- Support Levels: 0.7240, 0.7170
- Resistance Levels: 0.7350, 0.7400
USD/JPY: 100.45
- Outlook: Bearish
- Target: 99.10
- 24-Hour View:
- USD dipped to 100.07 but rebounded to 100.61.
- A sustained move below 99.90 would indicate a shift in outlook.
- Support Levels: 100.05, 99.90
- Resistance Levels: 100.80, 101.30
Key Information
- Market Conditions: The USD is showing strength against several major currencies, while EUR and GBP are also showing positive momentum.
- Resistance and Support Levels: The document provides clear support and resistance levels for each currency pair to help traders identify potential turning points.
- Outlook Changes: Some currency pairs have shifted from neutral to bullish or vice versa based on recent price action.
- Risk Events: The upcoming Jackson Hole symposium is influencing market sentiment, with investors leaning towards a more hawkish Fed stance.
- Economic Data: The document references recent economic data and central bank meetings, indicating their potential impact on currency movements.
Summary Table
| Currency Pair | Outlook | Target | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/SGD | Bullish | 1.3645 | 1.3470 | 1.3580 |
| EUR/SGD | Bullish | 1.5325 | 1.5190 | 1.5400 |
| GBP/SGD | Bullish | 1.8015 | 1.7750 | 1.8115 |
| AUD/SGD | Neutral | 1.0220 | 1.0260 | 1.0360 |
| JPY/SGD | Bullish | 1.3550 | 1.3390 | 1.3510 |
| USD/MYR | Neutral | 4.0350 | 4.0100 | 4.0680 |
| USD/THB | Bearish | 34.25 | 34.53 | 34.80 |
| USD/CNH | Neutral | 6.6905 | 6.6550 | 6.6750 |
| CNH/SGD | Bullish | 0.2039 | 0.2022 | 0.2035 |
| EUR/USD | Bullish | 1.1430 | 1.1220 | 1.1310 |
| GBP/USD | Bullish | 1.3370 | 1.3150 | 1.3370 |
| AUD/USD | Neutral | 0.7545 | 0.7585 | 0.7660 |
| NZD/USD | Neutral | 0.7170 | 0.7240 | 0.7350 |
| USD/JPY | Bearish | 99.10 | 99.50 | 100.80 |
UOB FX & Interest Rate Outlook
| Currency Pair | 3Q16 | 4Q16 | 1Q17 | 2Q17 | Rates Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.09 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.05 | EU: 0.00% |
| GBP/USD | 1.28 | 1.24 | 1.20 | 1.16 | UK: 0.25% |
| AUD/USD | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.78 | 0.80 | AU: 1.50% |
| NZD/USD | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.75 | NZ: 1.75% |
| USD/JPY | 105 | 106 | 109 | 110 | JP: -0.20% |
| USD/SGD | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.41 | 1.42 | SG: 0.90% |
| USD/MYR | 4.15 | 4.15 | 4.10 | 4.08 | MY: 3.00% |
| USD/THB | 36.0 | 36.5 | 37.0 | 37.0 | TH: 1.50% |
| USD/CNY | 6.70 | 6.60 | 6.59 | 6.62 | CN: 4.10% |
| USD/IDR | 13,200 | 13,200 | 13,300 | 13,400 | ID: 5.00% |
| USD/PHP | 47.0 | 46.0 | 45.0 | 43.0 | PH: 3.00% |
| USD/INR | 70.0 | 71.1 | 72.2 | 71.1 | IN: 6.50% |
| USD/TWD | 32.7 | 32.4 | 32.1 | 31.8 | TW: 1.38% |
| USD/HKD | 7.80 | 7.80 | 7.80 | 7.80 | HK: 0.75% |
| USD/KRW | 1190 | 1200 | 1220 | 1230 | KR: 1.00% |
Central Bank Meetings 2016
| Central Bank | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve (FOMC) | 27 | - | 16 | 27 | - | - | 27 | - | 21 | - | 02 | 14 |
| European Central Bank (ECB) | 21 | - | 10 | 21 | - | 02 | 21 | - | 08 | 20 | - | 08 |
| Bank of England (BOE) | 14 | 04 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 04 | 15 | 13 | 03 | 15 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) | - | 02 | 01 | 05 | 03 | 07 | 05 | 02 | 06 | 04 | 01 | 06 |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) | 28 | - | 10 | 28 | - | 09 | - | 11 | 22 | - | 10 | - |
| Bank of Japan (BOJ) | 29 | - | 15 | 28 | - | 16 | 29 | - | 21 | - | 01 | - |
| Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) | 21 | - | 09 | - | 19 | - | 13 | - | 07 | - | 23 | - |
| Bank of Thailand (BOT) | - | 03 | 23 | - | 11 | 22 | - | 03 | 14 | - | 09 | 21 |
| Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) | - | - | - | 14 | - | - | - | - | TBA | - | - | - |
Disclaimer
- This analysis is based on publicly available information.
- UOB Group does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information.
- Opinions and predictions are subject to change.
- UOB Group may have positions in the currencies mentioned. Readers are advised to assess their own risks before entering any transaction.
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