20160517-大华银行-FX_Insights_12页_1mb

报告摘要

UOB FX Insights Summary - 17 May 2016

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of foreign exchange (FX) pairs and market outlooks for the week of 17 May 2016. It includes current price levels, outlooks, support and resistance levels, and performance data over different time frames. Additionally, it outlines the FX and interest rate outlooks for the second and third quarters of 2016, as well as upcoming central bank meetings.

Key FX Pairs and Outlooks

USD/SGD

Spot: 1.3735
Outlook: Bullish
24-Hour View:
- Support: 1.3660, 1.3630
- Resistance: 1.3730, 1.3760
- Target: 1.3855
1-3 Weeks View:
- Bullish: To take partial profit at 1.3850/55
- Stop-loss: 1.3630

EUR/SGD

Spot: 1.5540
Outlook: *Neutral
24-Hour View:
- Support: 1.5475, 1.5400
- Resistance: 1.5525, 1.5555
1-3 Weeks View:
- Neutral: Pull-back has scope to extend lower to 1.5400

GBP/SGD

Spot: 1.9715
Outlook: *Neutral
24-Hour View:
- Support: 1.9700
- Resistance: 1.9850
1-3 Weeks View:
- Neutral: In a 1.9600/1.9900 range

AUD/SGD

Spot: 0.9980
Outlook: Bearish
24-Hour View:
- Support: 0.9950, 0.9900
- Resistance: 1.0015
1-3 Weeks View:
- Bearish: Room to extend lower to 0.9900
- Stop-loss: 1.0070

JPY/SGD

Spot: 1.2645
Outlook: Neutral
24-Hour View:
- Support: 1.2500
- Resistance: 1.2670
1-3 Weeks View:
- Neutral: In a broad 1.2500/1.2720 range

USD/MYR

Spot: 4.0390
Outlook: Bullish
24-Hour View:
- Support: 3.9800
- Resistance: 4.0600
1-3 Weeks View:
- Bullish: Diminished odds for further extension to 4.0760
- Stop-loss: 3.9800

USD/THB

Spot: 35.45
Outlook: Bullish
24-Hour View:
- Support: 35.30
- Resistance: 35.57
1-3 Weeks View:
- Bullish: To take partial profit at 35.57

USD/CNH

Spot: 6.5560
Outlook: Bullish
24-Hour View:
- Support: 6.5350
- Resistance: 6.5590, 6.5750
1-3 Weeks View:
- Bullish: Low odds for further extension to 6.5840
- Stop-loss: 6.5350

CNH/SGD

Spot: 0.2095
Outlook: Shifted to *Neutral
1-3 Weeks View:
- Neutral: In a broad 0.2082/0.2102 range

EUR/USD

Spot: 1.1315
Outlook: *Bearish
24-Hour View:
- Support: 1.1215
- Resistance: 1.1350, 1.1400
1-3 Weeks View:
- Bearish: Downside potential limited to 1.1215
- Stop-loss: 1.1400

GBP/USD

Spot: 1.4450
Outlook: *Neutral
24-Hour View:
- Support: 1.4400, 1.4370
- Resistance: 1.4500, 1.4550
1-3 Weeks View:
- Neutral: In a 1.4300/1.4550 range

AUD/USD

Spot: 0.7300
Outlook: Bearish
24-Hour View:
- Support: 0.7270, 0.7200
- Resistance: 0.7330, 0.7355
1-3 Weeks View:
- Bearish: Room to extend lower to 0.7200
- Stop-loss: 0.7355

NZD/USD

Spot: 0.6785
Outlook: Bearish
24-Hour View:
- Support: 0.6715/20
- Resistance: 0.6830
1-3 Weeks View:
- Bearish: To take partial profit at 0.6670
- Stop-loss: 0.6830

FX and Interest Rate Outlooks (2Q16 to 1Q17)

FX Pair	2Q16	3Q16	4Q16	1Q17	Rates Outlook
EUR/USD	1.11	1.11	1.12	1.13	EU: 0.00%
GBP/USD	1.39	1.43	1.46	1.47	UK: 0.50%
AUD/USD	0.77	0.79	0.80	0.80	AU: 1.75%
NZD/USD	0.67	0.69	0.70	0.71	NZ: 2.00%
USD/JPY	110	111	112	115	JP: -0.10%
USD/SGD	1.34	1.35	1.36	1.39	SG: 1.30%
USD/MYR	4.05	4.08	4.10	4.10	MY: 3.25%
USD/THB	36.0	36.0	36.5	37.0	TH: 1.50%
USD/CNY	6.47	6.50	6.45	6.44	CN: 3.85%
USD/IDR	13,000	13,100	13,200	13,300	ID: 6.75%
USD/PHP	48.0	47.0	46.0	45.0	PH: 4.0%
USD/INR	69.0	70.0	71.1	72.2	IN: 6.75%
USD/TWD	32.1	32.3	31.9	31.6	TW: 1.38%
USD/HKD	7.80	7.80	7.80	7.80	HK: 1.00%
USD/KRW	1180	1190	1200	1230	KR: 1.25%
USD/US	-	-	-	-	US: 0.75%

Upcoming Central Bank Meetings in 2016

Central Bank	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Federal Reserve (FOMC)	27	-	16	27	-	15	27	-	21	-	02	14
European Central Bank (ECB)	21	-	10	21	-	02	21	-	08	20	-	08
Bank of England (BOE)	14	04	17	14	12	16	14	04	15	13	03	15
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)	-	02	01	05	03	07	05	02	06	04	01	06
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)	28	-	10	28	-	09	-	11	22	-	10	-
Bank of Japan (BOJ)	29	-	15	28	-	16	29	-	-	-	-	-
Bank of Malaysia (BNM)	21	-	09	-	19	-	13	-	07	-	23	-
Bank of Thailand (BOT)	-	03	23	-	11	22	-	03	14	-	09	21
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)	-	-	-	14	-	-	-	-	TBA	-	-	-

Key Information and Notes

USD/JPY: The pair traded quietly, with a positive undertone. A break above 109.70 could lead to a rise to 110.60. The stop-loss is at 108.20.
USD/SGD: The pair is in a bullish phase, with support at 1.3630 and resistance at 1.3760. Partial profit is expected at 1.3850/55.
GBP/SGD: The outlook has shifted to neutral due to an unexpected rebound from a low. Expect sideways trading in a range of 1.9600 to 1.9900.
AUD/SGD: The pair is in a bearish outlook, with a possible extension to 0.9900. A break above 0.7355 could indicate a recovery.
CNH/SGD: The outlook has shifted to neutral, indicating a consolidation phase between 0.2082 and 0.2102.
EUR/USD: The pair is in a bearish outlook, with a stop-loss at 1.1400. A pullback is expected to 1.1215.
GBP/USD: The pair is neutral with a range of 1.4300 to 1.4550. The previous bearish view has been revised due to unexpected rebound.
AUD/USD: The pair is bearish, with a potential extension to 0.7200. A break above 0.7355 could signal a recovery.
NZD/USD: The pair is bearish, with a partial-profit target at 0.6670. A break above 0.6830 could indicate a reversal.

Disclaimer

This analysis is based on public information and is subject to change.
UOB Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in, currencies and financial products mentioned.
Readers should determine the economic risks and merits of any transaction before entering.

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