2021-10-05-埃森哲-Reaching_net_zero_by_2050_26页_1mb

Summary of "Reaching Net Zero by 2050"

Core Content

This document outlines the progress and challenges of European businesses in achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. It highlights the need for accelerated action, technological innovation, and cross-industry collaboration to meet the global climate goals set by the Paris Climate Agreement.

Main Points

• Net Zero Commitments:

  • As of August 2021, almost one-third (30%) of the 1,022 largest European listed companies have committed to net zero by 2050.
  • These companies account for over two-thirds of the GHG emissions from the largest European companies.

• Emissions Reduction Progress:

  • Companies with net zero goals reduced their scope 1 & 2 emissions by 10% on average between 2010 and 2019.
  • However, only 5% of companies are currently on track to meet their net zero targets by their own target year.

• Projection of Net Zero Achievement:

  • If current trends continue, less than 10% of companies will reach net zero by 2050.
  • Doubling the pace of emissions reduction by 2030 and tripling it by 2040 could allow 56% of companies to reach net zero by 2050.
  • In the Consensus Pathways scenario, 25% of companies would meet their own target year, and more than half would reach net zero by 2050.
  • In the Accelerated Action scenario, 42% of companies would meet their own net zero target, and 83% would reach net zero by 2050.

• Industry-Specific Challenges:

  • Seven industries (mostly in services) could reach net zero by 2050 with a doubled reduction rate in the next decade and another 50-70% acceleration in the following 10 years.
  • Five sectors (representing 42% of emissions) would need more radical action to achieve net zero by mid-century. These include automotive, construction, and manufacturing.

• Key Strategies for Success:

  • Technology & Innovation: Essential for driving emissions reductions, especially in industries where current solutions are insufficient.
  • Collaboration & Convergence: Cross-industry partnerships and shared platforms can accelerate progress, such as the development of green hydrogen and circular business models.
  • Regulation & Stakeholder Pressure: Governments are pushing for net zero, and companies must align with these policies and expectations.

Key Industries and Their Pathways

Construction

• Stepping Stones: New build net zero, double renovation rate, reduced embodied carbon, circular use of materials.
• Needed Innovations: Alternative building materials, prefabrication, virtual twins, IoT, sensors, and AI for lifecycle monitoring.

Automotive

• Stepping Stones: EV adoption, net-zero product design, improved battery tech, alternative fuels for heavy vehicles.
• Needed Innovations: Investment in EV infrastructure, data platforms, battery cost reduction, circular partnerships, and hydrogen tech for long-distance transport.

Chemicals

• Stepping Stones: Renewable electricity, electrification of process heat, circular models with renewable feedstock.
• Needed Innovations: Renewable energy growth, electrolyzer development, digital twin tech, asset management with AI, and CCS for hard-to-abate emissions.

Recommendations

1. Commit to Science-Based Targets:

   • Companies with science-based targets have seen better emissions reductions.

2. Embed Carbon Intelligence:

   • Treat carbon budgeting like financial budgeting, using data and analytics for informed decisions.

3. Leverage Industry Influence:

   • Large companies can drive broader emissions reductions by engaging suppliers and adopting circular models.

Methodology

• Data Collection: Analyzed 1,022 European listed companies, identifying 303 with net zero targets covering scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions.
• Emissions Analysis: Focused on scope 1 & 2 emissions (excluding scope 3 to avoid double counting), calculating CARR for the 2010-2019 period.
• Projection Models: Used an "S-curve" to estimate when companies might reach net zero, based on historical CARR and industry-specific scenarios (Consensus Pathways and Accelerated Action).
• Target Achievement: Considered a company as achieving net zero once it reduced emissions by at least 95% from 2019 levels.

Authors

• Jean-Marc Ollagnier, Europe CEO, Accenture
• Matthew Robinson, Managing Director, Sustainability Research, Accenture
• Sytze Dijkstra, Senior Principal, Sustainability Research, Accenture

Industry Classification

• Companies were grouped using the level-1 NACE classification, with adjustments for small sample sizes and merged categories (e.g., Construction, Utilities, Retail & Consumer Services). Some industries were excluded due to limited data.

CARR Multipliers Matrix

• Consensus Pathways Scenario: Multipliers applied to CARR for each time interval to model the S-curve of emissions reduction.
• Accelerated Action Scenario: Reflects mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C, with higher multipliers for faster reductions.

This report underscores that while progress is being made, significant acceleration is needed across the board, with a particular emphasis on innovation, collaboration, and regulatory alignment.