2021-12-15-爱立信-移动市场报告_40页_4mb

Ericsson Mobility Report Summary

Core Content

The Ericsson Mobility Report provides a comprehensive overview of the evolution and future of mobile technology over the past decade, highlighting key trends, forecasts, and the impact of 5G on global and regional markets. It emphasizes the transformative role of mobile technology in society and business, and the ongoing shift toward 5G as the dominant mobile access technology.

Key Forecasts

• 5G subscriptions: Expected to reach 4.4 billion by 2027, accounting for 49% of all mobile subscriptions.
• 5G handsets: Represent 23% of global mobile device volumes.
• FWA (Fixed Wireless Access): Will offer broadband to over 800 million people by 2027 through 230 million connections.
• Massive IoT: Will make up 51% of cellular IoT connections by 2027.
• Smartphone subscriptions: Projected to grow from 6.3 billion in 2021 to 7.7 billion in 2027, representing 86% of all mobile subscriptions.

Main Trends and Insights

• Mobile data traffic growth: Has increased 300 times since 2011, driven by smartphones, video streaming, and new applications.
• 5G momentum: 5G adoption is expected to be faster than 4G, with 90% of North American mobile subscriptions projected to be 5G by 2027.
• Regional adoption:
  • North East Asia: Highest 5G penetration, with 72% expected by 2027.
  • North America: 5G will account for 90% of mobile subscriptions by 2027.
  • Western Europe: 5G penetration is projected to reach 83% by 2027.
  • Latin America: 5G is expected to represent 44% of mobile subscriptions by 2027, with significant potential for economic and social recovery.
  • India: 4G subscriptions are expected to drop from 790 million in 2021 to 710 million in 2027, while 5G subscriptions will rise to 500 million.
  • Central and Eastern Europe: 5G subscriptions are projected to make up 41% of mobile subscriptions by 2027.

5G's Role in Society and Industry

• Consumer applications: 5G will enable new use cases such as high-speed mobile broadband, FWA, and innovative applications like video streaming and IoT.
• Business and industry: 5G will drive Industry 4.0 through private networks, enhancing productivity, safety, and efficiency in sectors like mining, manufacturing, and logistics.
• Digital divide: 5G and FWA are seen as key tools to bridge the digital divide, especially in rural areas of Latin America, where 244 million people lack internet access.

Disruptive Events and Market Shifts

• Smartphone adoption: Over 5.5 billion new smartphone subscriptions since 2011, with 77% of all mobile subscriptions being smartphones by 2027.
• Zero-rated data bundles: In the US, a major service provider introduced unlimited data for popular video services, leading to a global surge in mobile data traffic.
• India's 4G growth: Competitive pricing and high usage per smartphone made India one of the fastest-growing 4G markets, but 5G is expected to take over in the coming years.

Sustainability and Digital Transformation

• Sustainable networks: The report highlights the importance of building efficient and sustainable mobile networks to support future growth.
• Digital transformation: The pandemic has accelerated the need for digital infrastructure, with 5G playing a crucial role in enabling remote work, education, and connectivity.
• Private networks: These are becoming increasingly important for industrial applications, with examples such as underground mining operations in Mexico using 5G for real-time monitoring and control.

Regional Highlights

• Sub-Saharan Africa: Mobile broadband subscriptions are expected to rise to 78% of all mobile subscriptions by 2027, with 5G subscriptions reaching 10%.
• Middle East and North Africa: 4G will dominate, but 5G is expected to reach 25% of all mobile subscriptions by 2027.
• Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): 5G is projected to account for 80% of mobile subscriptions by 2027.
• Latin America: 5G will be a major enabler of economic recovery and digital inclusion, with potential revenue from 5G FWA reaching USD 4 billion by 2030.

Conclusion

The Ericsson Mobility Report underscores the rapid transformation of the mobile industry over the past decade, driven by 4G and now 5G. As the world moves toward a more connected future, 5G will not only reshape consumer behavior but also enable new business models and industrial innovations. The report highlights the importance of continued investment in infrastructure, spectrum management, and sustainability to ensure that mobile technology remains a key driver of global progress.