美联储-国际旅游汇率弹性与主导货币定价的作用（英）-2023.8-52页_756kb

Summary of "Exchange Rate Elasticities of International Tourism and the Role of Dominant Currency Pricing"

Objective

This paper examines the exchange rate elasticities of international tourism flows and analyzes the role of dominant currency pricing, with a focus on the U.S. dollar.

Key Findings

• Both bilateral exchange rates and U.S. dollar (USD) exchange rates significantly impact international tourism flows.
• The elasticity for USD exchange rates is larger than that for bilateral rates, indicating stronger sensitivity to USD movements. A 10% depreciation of the origin currency relative to the USD reduces tourism flows by approximately 1.9%.
• Evidence supports dominant currency pricing (DCP), where hotel prices in local currencies increase with domestic currency depreciation against the USD due to partial pricing in foreign currencies.
• Complementarity exists between DCP and dominant currency financing (DCF): countries with higher USD borrowing exhibit stronger sensitivity to USD exchange rate changes, enhancing the hedge effect.
• Country-specific dominant currencies (CSDCs) have a minor role on average but are more influential for tourism-dependent economies with high tourist concentration.
• Exchange rate flexibility may offer limited benefits for tourism exports due to DCP, potentially dampening responsiveness to currency fluctuations.

Implications

• For policymakers, exchange rate changes, especially USD appreciation, could contract tourism flows. Structural reforms and policies to reduce reliance on foreign borrowing may strengthen competitiveness.
• The findings confirm that the USD plays a unique role in international tourism, similar to goods trade, with significant policy relevance for small tourism-dependent economies.

Conclusion

The study provides strong evidence of DCP in international tourism, showing that widespread USD pricing limits the shock-absorbing benefits of exchange rate flexibility and highlights the importance of financing channels in shaping tourism outcomes.