2023-08-31-美联储-国际旅游汇率弹性与主导货币定价的作用_52页_756kb

Summary

In this paper, Ding and Timmer estimate exchange rate elasticities for international tourism flows and hotel prices.

Key findings are:

• Both bilateral exchange rates and U.S. dollar movements significantly affect tourism flows, with the latter having a larger impact (elasticity of 0.11 vs. 0.07 for bilateral).
• Hotel prices exhibit a 0.4 elasticity with respect to U.S. dollar exchange rates, indicating partial dollar pricing.
• The importance of dollar pricing is stronger in countries with higher dollar-denominated corporate borrowing.
• Country-specific dominant currencies (CSDCs) have minor effects overall, except in tourism-dependent and concentrated markets.
• Dominant currency pricing (DCP) in tourism weakens the traditional Mundell-Fleming benefits of domestic currency depreciation.

The results suggest that:

• A 1% USD appreciation corresponds to a 0.12% tourism decline.
• Policies to improve competitiveness in tourism-dependent economies should consider DCP's dampening effect on exchange rate flexibility.

This evidence complements the DCP literature by demonstrating its prevalence in international tourism and linking it to financing channels.