2024-11-24-IEA-到2030年满足中国电力系统灵活性需求（英）_99页_10mb

Meeting Power System Flexibility Needs in China by 2030: A Market-Based Policy Toolkit for the 15th Five-Year Plan

This report highlights the urgent need for market-based flexibility mechanisms to support China’s rapid transition to variable renewable energy (VRE) and meet its carbon goals. It identifies the following key aspects:

1. Growing Flexibility Needs

• China’s power system faces declining grid inertia, rising curtailment rates (particularly from May 2024), and exceptional ramping requirements driven by solar PV (solar capacity growth alone contributes significantly to short-term flexibility demands).
• Short-term flexibility needs are projected to triple from 2022–2030 due to VRE expansion, requiring 58% of solutions by non-fossil resources (e.g., batteries, demand response, hydro) under market-based scenarios.

2. Market Reforms Progress and Recommendations

Power market reforms are central to unlocking flexibility, but barriers remain:

• MLT Contracts: Dominate (90%+ of electricity) and restrict adjustments; must evolve to allow price fluctuations and volume flexibility.
• Spot Markets: Deployment progresses but lacks real-time price signals (e.g., negative pricing) and participation from smaller actors; recommendations include faster settlement (e.g., 5–15 minutes) and intraday markets.
• Auxiliary Markets: Standardize national ancillary services and enable new actors (e.g., VPPs) to participate via dynamic pricing and revenue stacking.
• Capacity Markets: Reform coal-centric systems to technology-neutral mechanisms with competitive auctions, supporting flexibility from storage and demand response.

3. Key Challenges and Barriers

Market barriers include fragmented provincial policies, rigid inter-provincial contracts limiting resource sharing, and limited flexible grid infrastructure (e.g., V2G adoption). Regulatory issues, such as restrictive retail markets and inflexible capacity payments, also constrain solutions.

4. Policy Toolkit for Flexibility

The framework prioritizes provincial- and national-level reforms:

• Step 1: Conduct regular flexibility needs assessments, considering inter-regional dynamics.
• Step 2: Tailor policies based on VRE penetration and spot market maturity (using a classification matrix for high/low-VRE and mature/no-spot markets).
• Step 3: Implement integrated reforms across MLT, spot, and retail markets, minimizing price caps and optimizing grid operations.
• Step 4: Monitor performance via metrics like VRE integration and spot market participation, adapting measures accordingly.

5. Flexibility Resources

Key flexibility sources include batteries (31 GW installed in 2023, aiming for 40 GW by 2025), demand response (22% of short-term needs), and green hydrogen (long-term seasonal storage). Digital tools (e.g., smart grids) facilitate demand shifting and grid flexibility.

6. Governance and Implementation

• Governance: Build institutional capacity for market oversight (e.g., capacity auctions) and capacity building.
• Path Forward: Align the 15th FYP with market maturation for decarbonization and reliability, leveraging China’s phased market testing approach.

Conclusion

By prioritizing market-linked flexibility solutions—coupled with demand response, storage, and grid upgrades—China can maximize its 2030 energy goals while ensuring grid stability. The toolkit underscores that market reforms are paramount for unlocking flexibility.