2008年-世界发展银行全球_Public_Expenditure_Policies_in_Southeast_Europe_121页_1mb

Public Expenditure Policies in Southeast Europe Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of public expenditure policies in Southeast Europe (SEE) and highlights the challenges and opportunities for reform in key sectors such as social protection, health, education, public administration, and infrastructure. It is authored by Ivailo V. Izvorski and Satu Kahkonen from the World Bank and outlines the fiscal developments, structural reforms, and institutional frameworks that have shaped government spending in the region.

Main Views

1. Fiscal Developments and Government Spending

• Fiscal Adjustment: Fiscal adjustment has been a key part of macroeconomic stabilization and structural reforms, with most SEE countries reducing fiscal deficits and trimming spending relative to GDP.
• Government Size: The size of government has declined in most SEE countries, except for Macedonia, Serbia, and Kosovo, due to structural reforms and changes in revenue and spending assignments.
• Revenue Trends: Revenues have risen modestly relative to GDP, driven by improved tax collection, increased excise taxes, and the introduction of VAT. However, this has not offset the need for further fiscal consolidation.
• Growth and Integration: Real GDP growth has averaged 5.8% from 2000–2006, but still lags behind more advanced reformers and emerging Asia. The aspiration to join the EU has significantly influenced the reform agenda.

2. Social Protection

• Historical Context: Generous social protection systems, including universal coverage, were a legacy of the SFRY and Albania, but have become fiscally unsustainable due to the collapse of formal employment and the rise of informal activity.
• Challenges: Governments have adopted strategies such as deficit accumulation, divergence between mandated benefits and actual payments, and benefit reduction to manage rising social protection costs.
• Pension Reform: Pension reform is crucial for fiscal sustainability, with parametric reforms improving the situation, but more comprehensive reforms are needed, including raising the retirement age and equalizing retirement ages for men and women.
• Reforms Needed: Improving compliance and collection of social contributions, reducing exemptions, and introducing co-payments with safeguards for vulnerable groups are key areas for reform.

3. Health

• Spending and Outcomes: Public health spending in SEE is relatively high compared to similar income countries, but health outcomes remain poor.
• Institutional Setup: Most countries inherited inefficient health systems from the former Yugoslavia, including poor utilization of healthcare resources and underperforming delivery mechanisms.
• Reforms: Efforts to improve cost recovery include enhancing administrative efficiency, reducing contribution exemptions, expanding co-payments, and limiting voluntary supplemental insurance.
• Pharmaceutical Procurement: Rationalizing procurement processes through international competitive bidding, reference pricing, and promoting generics is essential to reduce drug costs.

4. Education

• Performance and Access: SEE countries lag behind EU standards in education indicators, with students scoring significantly lower in PISA assessments. Enrollment rates are also below those of the EU and Eastern Europe.
• Structural Issues: Education systems suffer from inefficiencies and inconsistencies due to rigid labor markets, poor decentralization, and fragmented administration.
• Public Expenditure: Public education spending averages 4.5% of GDP, higher than in some emerging markets and historical levels in Japan, indicating the need for improved efficiency rather than increased spending.
• Reforms: Strengthening accountability, shifting authority to sub-national governments, adopting capitation financing, and improving curriculum quality and relevance are recommended. Addressing equity and disparity within education systems is also crucial.

5. Public Service and Wages

• Wage Levels: Public sector wage bills in SEE are higher than in the EU15, driven by excessive employment in key sectors and high salary levels.
• Employment Trends: There has been a trend toward reducing public sector employment, with progress in Serbia and ongoing efforts in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia.
• Wage Setting: Wage setting mechanisms and pay structures are being reformed to align with EU norms, including salary decompression and depoliticization of the civil service.
• Civil Service Reform: Many countries are working to depoliticize the civil service, with legislative changes aimed at reducing politicization and improving performance-based pay systems.

6. Infrastructure

• Fiscal Space: Infrastructure development requires fiscal space, which is constrained by high public spending and limited tax increases.
• Public Investment: Efficient public investment planning and management are essential to address infrastructure gaps and improve service delivery.
• Challenges: The need to invest in infrastructure is growing, but it is complicated by the economic and demographic pressures in the region.

Key Information

• Document Purpose: To analyze the level, composition, and outcomes of government spending in SEE and identify reform options.
• Sector Focus: The report focuses on sectors with the largest shares of public spending and significant budgetary implications: social protection, health, education, public administration, and infrastructure.
• Recommendations: Emphasis is placed on expenditure restructuring, efficiency improvements, and fiscal sustainability. Key recommendations include reducing existing spending, improving tax compliance, streamlining public administration, and reforming pension and health systems.

Conclusion

Public expenditure policies in Southeast Europe are at a critical juncture. While fiscal consolidation has made progress, the region still faces significant challenges in ensuring efficient and equitable spending. Reforms in social protection, health, education, and public administration are essential to support long-term economic growth and integration with the EU. The report advocates for a comprehensive approach to public spending, including structural reforms, improved institutional frameworks, and better fiscal management.