2008年-世界发展银行全球_Montenegro___Beyond_the_Peak_Growth_Policies_and_Fiscal_Constraints_Public_Expenditure_and_Institutional_Review_128页_9mb

报告摘要

Summary of Report No 46660-ME: Montenegro Beyond the Peak: Growth Policies and Fiscal Constraints

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Montenegro's economic and fiscal situation, focusing on the challenges posed by the post-independence economic boom and the need for sustainable growth policies. It outlines the structural fiscal constraints, public investment priorities, and the importance of institutional reform in ensuring long-term economic stability and development.

Main Points

1. Post-Independence Economic Boom

Montenegro experienced rapid economic growth in the early 2000s, driven by tourism, foreign direct investment (FDI), and external private-sector debt.
In 2007, real GDP growth reached double-digit rates, contrasting sharply with the economic stagnation before independence.
FDI inflows reached 30% of GDP in 2006 and 40% in 2007, significantly boosting domestic demand and imports.
The current-account deficit widened rapidly from 8.5% of GDP in 2005 to 40% in 2007.
The boom was fueled by unsustainable external capital inflows, including foreign real estate purchases and external borrowing by domestic banks.

2. Fiscal Constraints and Challenges

The economic boom led to an unexpected surplus in fiscal revenues, which may have masked the country's medium-term fiscal challenges.
The government faces pressure to increase spending during the boom, but must ensure that fiscal policy is based on a sustainable tax base.
The modified golden rule states that tax revenues (excluding temporary factors) should finance current expenditure, and borrowing should be limited to investment purposes.
The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) imposes constraints on the general government budget deficit (3% of GDP) and public debt (60% of GDP).
Montenegro's debt-to-GDP ratio was about half the SGP limit in 2007, and the government must avoid increasing it further.

3. Public Investment Priorities

The report emphasizes the need for large-scale public investments in key sectors to support long-term growth and development.
Energy Sector: EPCG (Electrical Company of Montenegro) has reported annual losses of about 1% of GDP since 2002. A €1.8 billion investment program is planned until 2025 to improve energy availability and financial sustainability.
Transport Sector: Significant investments are required to address infrastructure gaps, especially in roads and railways. The report highlights the need for better maintenance, reduced accident rates, and improved efficiency.
Other Sectors: The water and solid-waste sectors also require attention due to their impact on tourism and public health.

4. Fiscal Policy and Institutional Reforms

Fiscal policy must balance macroeconomic stability with socio-economic development goals.
The government needs to commit to fiscal-policy benchmarks to create the necessary fiscal space for public investments.
Institutional reforms are critical, particularly in the public administration, to improve efficiency and reduce the wage bill.
The report discusses the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) and privatization in reducing fiscal pressure and improving infrastructure delivery.

Key Recommendations

Implement a multi-year capital budget to ensure adequate financing for public investments and improve their quality.
Reduce reliance on temporary fiscal revenues and base fiscal policy on a sustainable tax base.
Explore private-sector participation through PPPs, privatization, and concession arrangements.
Address wage pressures and improve the efficiency of public spending.
Strengthen institutional frameworks in the energy and transport sectors to support long-term growth and reduce risks.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of transitioning from a boom-driven economy to a more sustainable growth model. It highlights the need for fiscal discipline, institutional reforms, and strategic public investments to ensure Montenegro's long-term economic stability and development. The current fiscal framework, while effective in maintaining macroeconomic stability, must be adjusted to accommodate the demands of public infrastructure development and the realities of a more mature economic environment.

Tables and Figures

Table 1.1: Demand Stimuli in Montenegro, 2003–08
Table 1.2: FDI in Montenegro, 2001–07
Table 1.3: Credits, Deposits, and External Bank Debt, 2003–08
Table 1.4: Social Indicators, 2004–08
Table 1.5: Price Increases in Coastal Property, 2005–07
Table 1.6: Tourism and Travel Competitiveness in South Eastern Europe, 2008
Table 1.7: Tax Rates in Montenegro and Neighboring Countries, 2008
Table 1.8: Regional Comparison of Budget Structures, 2007
Table 1.9: Fiscal Operations, 2003–07
Table 1.10: Fiscal Operations, 2003–07
Table 1.11: Strategies Adopted Since PEIR 1, 2007–08
Table 1.12: State-Owned Enterprises in Montenegro, April 2008
Table 2.1: Structural Fiscal Balance, 2003–07
Table 2.2: Fiscal Rules in International Comparison
Table 2.3: Design of Fiscal Frameworks
Table 2.4: Base Case Macro Framework With TEDS, 2006–12
Table 3.1: EPCG Operational and Financial Performance Indicators, 2006–11
Table 3.2: Electricity Tariffs, 2007–08
Table 3.3: EPCG Investment Plan, 2007–11
Table 3.4: Infrastructure and Roads in South Eastern Europe, 2007
Table 3.5: Road Infrastructure Coverage in Central and Eastern Europe, 2005–08
Table 3.6: Maintenance Cost Projections for Road Network, 2008–12
Table 3.7: Strategically Important Road Infrastructure Projects in Montenegro
Table 3.8: Car Accidents in Montenegro, 2004–07
Table 3.9: Fatality Rates in Montenegro, 2000 and 2005
Table 3.10: Distribution of Fatality Accident Risk Rates
Table 3.11: Euro RAP Ratings for Montenegro Roads
Table 4.1: PEIR-1 Recommendations and Policy Reforms, 2007–08
Table 4.2: Doing Business Indicators, 2008
Table 4.3: Public Sector Employment Structure, 2007
Table 4.4: Hourly Wages in Montenegro, 2006
Table 4.5: Wage Dispersion for Selected Occupations, 2007
Table 4.6: Hourly Wages by Sector and Education, 2006
Table 4.7: Hourly Wages by Sector and Major Occupation Groups, 2006
Table 4.8: Hourly Wages by Sector and Region, 2006
Figure 1.1: Real GDP Growth Rates, 2007
Figure 1.2: Net Per-Capita FDI, 2006
Figure 1.3: Gross FDI in Montenegro, 2002–07
Figure 1.4: Weighted Average Lending Rates, 2005–08
Figure 1.5: Real Weighted Average Lending Rates, 2005–08
Figure 1.6: Montenegro Stock Exchange Indices, 2003–08
Figure 1.7: Apartment Prices in City Center, 2007/08
Figure 1.8: Real Growth, 2004–07 and 2008-Q1
Figure 1.9: Deposits and Credits, 2003–08
Figure 1.10: Private-Sector Credit Growth, 2004–08
Figure 1.11: Current-Account Balance, 2007
Figure 1.12: TEDS and Imports, 2003–07
Figure 1.13: Imports and Tax Receipts, 2003–07
Figure 2.1: Inherent Risks to Fiscal Dynamics
Figure 2.2: Pass-Through of FDI Inflow
Figure 2.3: Non-Sustainable External Demand Stimuli and Tax Receipts, 2003–07
Figure 2.4: TEDS Size, 2006–12
Figure 2.5: Impact of TEDS on Taxes and Fiscal Balances, 2006–12
Figure 2.6: Impact of TEDS and Budget Structure, 2006–12
Figure 2.7: Impact of TEDS and Relative Budget Structure, 2006–12
Figure 3.1: EPCG Net Operating Income, 2006–11
Figure 3.2: Capital and Recurrent Expenditure in the Road Sector, 2005–08
Figure 3.3: Railway Income Statement Summary
Figure 3.4: Infrastructure and Regional Competitiveness
Figure 3.5: Fatalities per One Million Inhabitants, 2007
Figure 3.6: Accidents in Montenegro, 2004–07
Figure 3.7: Fuel Price Comparisons in (South) East Europe, November 2006
Figure 3.8: Public Investments and Fiscal Constraints
Figure 3.9: Fatality Rates on Route M2, 2006–07
Figure 4.1: Government Effectiveness and Regulatory Quality, 2007
Figure 4.2: General Government Wage Bill, 2006
Figure 4.3: General Government Wage Bill, 2002–07
Figure 4.4: Wage Bill Structure, 2003–07
Figure 4.5: Wage Dispersion for Selected Occupations, 2007
Figure 4.6: Hourly Wages by Sector and Education, 2006
Figure 4.7: Hourly Wages by Sector and Major Occupation Groups, 2006
Figure 4.8: Hourly Wages by Sector and Region, 2006

Boxes

Box 1.1: Housing Prices, Credit Crunch, and the End to Economic Booms
Box 1.2: Growth Engine Tourism
Box 1.3: The Reform Agenda: Economic Constraints and Political Objectives
Box 1.4: Strong Strategic Policy Anchors
Box 2.1: Benefits and Risks of Public-Private Partnerships
Box 2.2: Can Fiscal Rules Help to Realize Ambitious Public Investment Plans?
Box 2.3: Designing a Successful Fiscal Framework in Montenegro
Box 4.1: Public Sector Remuneration Policies in Montenegro

Acknowledgements

The report was prepared by a team including Jan-Peter Olters, Jane Armitage, Luca Barbone, Bernard Funck, and others. It benefited from the insights and cooperation of various government bodies, institutions, and experts, particularly the Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of Montenegro, and the Tax Directorate. The authors also acknowledge the detailed comments provided by Nikola Fabris, the Chief Economist of the Central Bank.

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