2025-05-30-Bernstein-巴贾杰汽车有限公司（BJAUT）_巴贾杰汽车第四季度_走在稳定增长的道路上_14页_340kb

报告摘要

Bajaj Auto Ltd: Outperform Rating Summary

Rating: Outperform
Price Target: INR 11,000 (24% upside from current price of 8,874.50 INR)
Recent Performance:
- Q4 FY25 showed strong consistency with 20.2% EBITDA margins, despite headwinds from KTM export suspension, soft domestic motorcycle volumes, and rising electric vehicle (EV) mix. Exports grew 19% YoY, outpacing industry in key markets.
- Domestic motorcycle market faced softness in urban areas due to factors like rental inflation, but rural demand remained resilient. Bajaj maintained positive outlook for FY26 with projected 5–6% industry volume growth, driven by the 125cc+ segment.
Strategic Focus for FY2026:
- Aggressive expansion in export markets, particularly Brazil and Latin America (LATAM), with capacity increases targeting 50K units annually for Brazil.
- Sustain leadership in EV segments, contributing ~20% to domestic revenue, with new launches like the Chetak e-scooter and planned e-rickshaw.
- Gain share in the 125cc+ motorcycle segment through new Pulsar variants and aggressive marketing, aiming for segment leadership.
- Revive KTM exports starting Q2 FY26 with regulatory approvals expected by mid-FY25, to boost export growth and collaboration opportunities.
Financial Projections:
- Revenue expected to grow from INR 448,704 Mn in FY24 to INR 519,904 Mn in FY25E and INR 601,482 Mn in FY26E, with CAGR of 13.4%.
- Margins under pressure in Q1 FY26 due to currency headwinds and rising commodity costs, with calibrated price hikes offsetting some impact.
- DCF valuation supports INR 11,000 PT, based on long-term EBITDA margin improvements and EV scale.
Key Catalysts: Regulatory approvals for KTM acquisition, continued strong export performance, successful rollout of new EV models.
Risks: Potential margin degradation from currency and commodity volatility, rare-earth magnet supply constraints for EV production starting July, and weaker-than-expected demand in urban India markets. Downside risk if export markets or EV growth falters.