2009年-世界发展银行全球_Social_Safety_Net_in_the_Kyrgyz_Republic___Capitalizing_on_Achievements_and_Addressing_New_Challenges_129页_2mb

Summary of the Social Safety Net in the Kyrgyz Republic: Capitalizing on Achievements and Addressed New Challenges

Core Content

This report provides an analytical assessment of the social safety net in the Kyrgyz Republic, focusing on the performance of the Unified Monthly Benefit (UMB) and the broader context of poverty and social protection. It aims to support policy decisions on reforming the existing system by identifying strengths, opportunities for improvement, and feasible instruments for implementation.

Main Issues and Objectives

• To analyze the poverty reduction impact and targeting accuracy of the current non-contributory social benefits.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of the UMB and other programs in addressing poverty and vulnerability.
• To identify options for reforming the UMB and strengthening the overall safety net.
• To foster consensus among Kyrgyz policymakers on the reform path and implementation strategies.

Key Findings

Poverty Context

• The Kyrgyz Republic has a significant poverty issue, with 43% of the population living in poverty and 11% in extreme poverty in 2005.
• Poverty is highly concentrated in large, multi-generational households.
• Child poverty is pronounced, with 52% of under-18-year-olds and 57.7% of under-6-year-olds living in poverty.
• Extreme poverty is more common in mountainous regions, with a poverty rate of 60%.
• Poverty is strongly correlated with the education level of the household head, quality of housing, and access to consumer durables.

Current Social Safety Net

• The safety net is a mix of "old-style" categorical benefits and two new targeted benefits: the UMB and MSB.
• Annual spending on social assistance is between 1 and 1.5% of GDP, lower than the ECA average of 25%.
• UMB and MSB spending has declined from 0.74% to 0.49% of GDP since 2007.
• Categorical benefits and subsidies account for 0.25% of GDP in 2009, though they remain significant in absolute terms.

UMB Performance

• The UMB is a poverty-targeted, means-tested benefit for children aged 1.5–16 years from low-income families.
• It has a relatively strong performance in targeting the poor, with 38% of total benefits reaching the poorest quintile and 43% reaching the next.
• The poorest 40% receive 81% of total UMB benefits.
• It reduces the extreme poverty gap by 12% but only by 3% in terms of the extreme poverty rate.
• The UMB is cost-efficient, costing 1.6 KGS to reduce the absolute poverty gap and 4.7 KGS to reduce the extreme poverty gap.

MSB Performance

• The MSB is a cash transfer program for disadvantaged groups, including children with disabilities and large families.
• It has a lower spending share (0.21% of GDP) but higher poverty impact compared to the UMB.
• It reduces the extreme poverty rate by 6.4% and the extreme poverty gap by 6.3%.
• The MSB is less targeted, with 33.3% of benefits reaching the poorest quintile and 30% leaking to the top two quintiles.

Key Options for Reform

• Modifying the Means Test: Incorporating presumptive income from livestock into the UMB means test could improve targeting accuracy and coverage.
• Hybrid Means Test (HMT): Combining administrative income data with livestock income estimates may enhance targeting efficiency.
• Proxy Means Test (PMT): Using indicators to estimate household consumption and poverty status can improve targeting without direct means testing.
• Categorical Targeting: A universal child benefit approach could reduce exclusion errors and expand coverage.
• Improving Administration: Enhancing data collection, targeting mechanisms, and reducing leakage is crucial for the UMB's effectiveness.

Challenges and Opportunities

• The UMB faces challenges such as low coverage, leakage to non-poor, and limited benefit generosity.
• The safety net must respond to new risks, including economic shocks, climate change, and rising food and energy prices.
• The report highlights the need to improve targeting accuracy, reduce exclusion errors, and increase benefit adequacy.
• Strengthening the UMB through better implementation and resource allocation can significantly enhance its poverty reduction impact.

Conclusion

The UMB has shown respectable performance in targeting the poor and reducing poverty gaps, but further reforms are needed to improve coverage, reduce leakage, and increase benefit generosity. The report emphasizes the importance of aligning the safety net with the country's development strategy and the need to adopt innovative targeting methods such as hybrid means testing and proxy-means testing to better address poverty and vulnerability.