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2026 US Consumer Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2026 Consumer Outlook from Goldman Sachs highlights that consumer spending is expected to remain robust, supported by a fiscal boost and a gradual abatement of previous headwinds. Despite a slowdown in 2025, the outlook for 2026 is more positive, with a forecasted growth rate of 2.2% (Q4/Q4 basis), which is above the consensus forecast of 1.9%.

Key Drivers of Consumer Growth in 2026

• Labor Market Recovery: Job growth is expected to rebound from 32k per month in 2025 to 70k in 2026, driven by a stabilization of the labor market and a fiscal stimulus.
• Real Wage Growth: Inflation will fall more than wage growth, leading to slightly higher real wage growth of over 1% in 2026, which will support consumer spending.
• Fiscal Boost: Tax cuts from the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" are projected to increase household consumption growth by +0.2pp in 2026, with a frontloaded impact in the first half of the year.
• Wealth Effect: Rising equity prices will continue to provide a +0.2pp boost to consumption growth in 2026, particularly benefiting upper-income households.

Main Viewpoints

• Moderate Growth in 2025: Consumer spending grew at a strong 3.5% in Q3 2025 but is expected to slow to 2.2% on a Q4/Q4 basis for the full year. This is due to slower real income growth and elevated inflation from tariffs.
• 2026 Outlook: The slowdown in 2025 is expected to reverse, with real labor income growth projected at 2.3% and real income growth overall rising from 2.0% to 2.6% in 2026.
• K-Shaped Consumer Economy: While the K-shaped pattern may be exaggerated in 2025, it is expected to emerge more clearly in 2026. Lower-income households will likely experience weaker spending growth, while middle and upper-income households will see stronger growth. This is due to government spending cuts, lower immigration, and equity wealth effects.
• Downside Risks: There are two major risks to the 2026 consumer spending outlook:
  1. A weak job market could continue to restrain income and spending growth, particularly affecting low-income workers who are more sensitive to labor market changes.
  2. A decline in asset prices, such as equities or homes, could turn the wealth effect into a drag on consumption, especially for higher-income households.

Key Information

• Inflation Trends: Tariff-related inflation effects have already contributed 0.5pp to inflation and are expected to add another 0.3pp over the next six months. As these effects fade, inflation will fall more than wage growth, resulting in higher real wage growth.
• Consumption Growth by Income Level:
  • Lower-Income Households: Expected to see the softest growth, due to government spending cuts and lower immigration.
  • Middle-Income Households: Likely to experience strongest real income growth.
  • Upper-Income Households: Expected to see the strongest spending growth due to equity wealth effects.
• Wealth Effects: Recent increases in equity prices will continue to support consumption growth by about 0.2pp in 2026.
• Fiscal Impact: The new tax cuts are estimated to provide a net boost of 0.2pp to consumption growth in 2026.

Summary of Forecasted Growth

Conclusion

The 2026 US consumer outlook is positive, with solid growth expected due to fiscal stimulus, labor market recovery, and wealth effects. While a K-shaped pattern is anticipated, the overall trend is upward, with stronger growth for middle and upper-income households. However, risks such as a weak labor market and declining asset prices could challenge this outlook.