2024-02-22-IMF-Determinants_of_Zombie_Banks_in_Emerging_Markets_and_Developing_Economies_36页_1mb

报告摘要

Determinants of Zombie Banks in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Research Focus:
Empirical analysis of zombie banks in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), defined as chronically undercapitalized banks receiving no treatment (recapitalization, restructuring, or resolution) or persisting despite interim actions.

Methods:

Compilation of a dataset of 266 banks in 69 EMDEs (2001-2018).
Two identification methods:
1. Decision-Based Analysis (DBA): Absence of treatment within one year of undercapitalization.
2. Outcome-Based Analysis (OBA): Lack of resolution within two years or recurrence of undercapitalization.
Logit regressions to test bank-level, macroeconomic, structural, and crisis-related factors.

Key Findings:

Determinants:
- Country-specific factors (low-income status, crises, inflation, credit growth) outweigh bank-specific traits (e.g., state ownership increases zombie risk).
- Structural factors (governance, financial inclusion) have limited impact.
- Region-specific drivers emerge (e.g., Africa: state ownership; Asia-Pacific: profitability).
Policy Implications:
- Strengthen regulatory frameworks and resolution mechanisms to address undercapitalization proactively.
- IMF programs and external support reduce zombie bank persistence during crises.

Conclusion:
Zombie bank emergence is heavily influenced by country-level and regional factors. Further research needed to address unobserved variables in decision-making processes.

展开完整摘要