美国2021年第2季度家庭债务报告（英）-微观经济数据中心-2021-47页_910kb

报告摘要

2021:Q2 Household Debt and Credit Quarterly Report Summary

Core Content Overview

This report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York provides a comprehensive analysis of household debt and credit trends in the United States during the second quarter of 2021. It includes data on total debt balances, originations, delinquency rates, and regional variations.

Key Findings

Total Household Debt Balances

Aggregate household debt balances increased by $313 billion in 2021:Q2, a 2.1% rise from 2021:Q1.
Total debt balances now stand at $14.96 trillion.
This increase is the largest since 2013:Q4 and the largest nominal increase since 2007:Q2.
Debt balances are $812 billion higher than at the end of 2019 and $691 billion higher than 2020:Q2.

Debt Composition

Mortgage balances increased by $282 billion, reaching $10.44 trillion.
Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) balances declined by $13 billion, marking the 18th consecutive quarter of decreases since 2016:Q4.
Credit card balances grew by $17 billion, following a $49 billion decline in the previous quarter.
Auto loan balances increased by $33 billion.
Student loan balances declined by $14 billion.
Non-housing balances increased by $44 billion, with auto loans and credit cards offsetting the student loan decline.

Originations

Mortgage originations hit a series high in 2021:Q2, with $1.2 trillion in new balances, including refinances.
Over 4 quarters, mortgage originations totaled $4.6 trillion, with 44% of the outstanding mortgage balance originated in the past year.
Auto loan originations reached $202 billion.
Credit card limits increased by $36 billion in the second quarter, after pandemic-related declines.
HELOC limits decreased by $13 billion, continuing a declining trend.

Delinquency & Public Records

Aggregate delinquency rates remain low and declining since the pandemic began, due to forbearance programs (CARES Act and lender initiatives).
As of late June 2021, 2.7% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, a 2.0 percentage point decrease from the fourth quarter of 2019.
Serious delinquency (90+ days late) accounts for $316 billion of the total $405 billion delinquent debt.
Mortgage delinquency transition rate hit a record low of 0.4%.
53% of loans in early delinquency transitioned back to current status, higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Foreclosures remain on legal hold due to the CARES Act moratorium.
Student loans have very low delinquency rates due to CARES Act administrative forbearances.
Auto loans and credit cards also showed declines in delinquency transition rates.

Account Closings and Credit Inquiries

Credit inquiries within the past six months increased to 121 million, a 3.7% rise from the previous quarter.
New accounts opened in the second quarter totaled 206 million, a jump after subdued activity since the pandemic began.

Regional Analysis (Selected States)

Total debt balance per capita and its composition are reported by state.
Delinquency status of debt balances is also analyzed by state.
Percent of balance 90+ days late and foreclosures and bankruptcies are tracked by state.

Data Methodology

The report is based on the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, a 5% random sample of individuals with credit reports (usually aged 19 and over).
Joint accounts are analyzed, with 50% of balances attributed to each individual.
Per capita figures are computed by dividing totals for the sample by the total number of people in the sample.
Excluded accounts include those in bankruptcy, authorized user trades, disputed trades, lost/stolen trades, medical trades, child/family support trades, commercial trades, and inactive trades (not reported in the last 3 months).
Inquiries only include hard pulls (consumer-initiated requests for credit reports).
Credit utilization rates for revolving accounts (credit cards and HELOCs) are likely to overestimate actual utilization due to the use of highest-balance figures.

Notes on Data Sources and Limitations

The data is sourced from Equifax credit reports.
Student loan data may be delayed due to servicer reporting practices.
Noncurrently reporting accounts with positive balances are treated as closed, following credit reporting company rules.
Some statistical adjustments were made to account for servicer discrepancies and data processing.

Summary of Trends

Mortgage and auto loan originations reached series highs.
Credit card and HELOC limits increased, but HELOC balances continued to decline.
Delinquency rates remained low, with student loans showing the most significant reduction due to forbearance.
Bankruptcies and foreclosures remained near historic lows, indicating improved financial stability among households.
Credit utilization rates for revolving accounts are likely overestimated, and inquiries are only those initiated by consumers.