2021-06-01-世界银行-Public-Private_Partnerships_in_Urban_Bus_Systems_195页_3mb

Public-Private Partnerships in Urban Bus Systems: An Analytical Framework for Project Identification and Preparation Summary

This report provides an analytical framework for planning and preparing urban bus public-private partnerships (PPPs). It examines common challenges in implementing PPPs in urban bus systems and offers strategies for risk management and project structuring. The framework is particularly relevant for cities facing rapid urbanization, fiscal constraints, and the need to improve public transportation services.

Rationale and Limitations of PPPs

• Rationale: PPPs are often considered when seeking to leverage private sector efficiency, innovation, and financing for urban bus systems. They can improve service quality, reduce congestion, and enhance safety. However, PPPs may not always be feasible or optimal, especially in contexts with fiscal constraints or weak institutional capacity.
• Limitations: Many urban bus PPPs have faced challenges, including demand overestimation, inefficient risk allocation, limited integration with existing infrastructure, and difficulties in achieving financial sustainability. These issues have led to project failures or significant cost overruns (e.g., projects in Bogotá, Lima, Santiago, and Cali).

Key Technical, Institutional, and Fiscal Requirements

• Technical Elements: Urban bus PPPs must address component risks efficiently, such as fleet management, fare collection, and infrastructure development. Modular project designs allow for flexibility and risk distribution.
• Institutional and Regulatory Elements: A strong legal framework, capable transportation authority, and robust stakeholder engagement are critical for successful project implementation. Incumbent operators should be integrated early to mitigate resistance and leverage their assets.
• Fiscal Capacity: Public entities must assess their ability to provide subsidies and manage revenue streams. PPPs often require contingent liabilities or guarantees to achieve bankability.

Risk Management Framework

The framework employs a risk matrix approach to identify, allocate, and mitigate risks:

• Direct Risks: These include demand, financial, demand-related, collection, affordability, financial coordination, eviction, and other operational risks.
• Indirect Risks: Examples include macroeconomic risks (inflation, interest rates, foreign exchange), political risks, social unrest, regulatory changes, government obligations, early termination, changes in law, natural disasters, and climate-related risks.
• Risk Allocation: Risks should be assigned to the party best equipped to manage them (e.g., private sector for demand and revenue risks, public sector for land acquisition and permits). Mitigation strategies include performance-based incentives, insurance, and guarantees.

Project Structures

Different PPP models for urban bus systems are outlined:

• Model 1: Bundled private finance and operation of buses.
• Model 2: Unbundling fleet provision and operation.
• Model 3: Private provision of infrastructure (combined or separate).
• Model 4: Use of electric buses.
  Adjusting these models based on local context is crucial for success.

Lessons from International Case Studies

• Case Studies: Projects in Lima, Santiago, Bogotá, Acapulco, Cali, Quito, and others provide insights into challenges such as demand fluctuations, stakeholder engagement, interface risks, and inadequate financial planning. Successful elements include competitive procurement, integration of services, and phased implementation.

Practical Tools and Guidance

• Templates: Risks, funding sources, and concession contract elements.
• Software: Excel-based risk matrices for comprehensive analysis.

This analytical framework serves as a practical guide for policymakers and project planners to navigate the complexities of PPPs in urban bus systems, prioritize technical solutions, manage risks effectively, and structure projects to achieve sustainable mobility improvements.