2025-06-11-Jefferies-从咆哮到咬人_5月美国国立卫生研究院支出同比下降32_9页_240kb

NIH Outlays and Impact on A&G Companies (May 2025 Summary)

Core Content Overview

The document provides an analysis of the decline in National Institutes of Health (NIH) outlays in May 2025 and its implications for companies in the life sciences and genomic research sector. It highlights the financial performance of NIH, the broader trends in U.S. Academic & Government (A&G) research spending, and the potential impact on firms with significant exposure to NIH funding. The report also includes valuation methodologies, price targets, and investment recommendations for several companies.

Key Trends and Data

• NIH Outlays in May 2025:

  • Decreased by -32% year-over-year (y/y) and -28% month-over-month (m/m) to $2.77 billion.
  • This marks the third consecutive month of negative outlay growth and the lowest absolute dollar level since September 2014.
  • On a trailing twelve months (TTM) basis, NIH outlays turned negative, with a -2% y/y decline in May (vs. +1% in April).

• YTD A&G Research Spending:

  • U.S. A&G research spending is down -16% year-to-date.
  • Federal funding among respondents is down -20%, driven by NIH/NSF grant disruptions.
  • The FY26 budget outlook suggests a potential 20% cut, which would further pressure A&G-focused firms.

• Company Exposure:

  • Companies with high exposure to NIH include TXG (45%), LAB (30%), PACB (20%), ILMN (14%), and BRKR (10%).

• Short-Term Outlook:

  • A 2025 recovery in NIH outlays appears unlikely.
  • 86% of institutions anticipate no improvement in A&G spending.
  • Major capital expenditures (capex) remain delayed or canceled.

• Potential Silver Lining:

  • The Senate hearing showed bipartisan concern over the proposed 40% NIH cut.
  • Dr. Bhattacharya's emphasis on collaboration suggests a moderated outcome is possible.
  • Any clarity on the budget (even if reduced) may add certainty to the market, though recission risk remains.

Investment Recommendations and Valuation

Valuation Methodology

Jefferies uses a variety of methodologies to determine price targets and ratings, including:

• Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
• EBITDA, EPS, and Free Cash Flow (FCF) analysis
• EV/EBITDA, P/E, and EV/revs ratios
• Market risk, growth rate, and revenue stream assessments

Analyst Certification and Conflicts of Interest

• All analysts certify that their views reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation.
• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to investment banking services with covered companies.
• Investors are advised to consider this report as only one factor in their investment decisions.

Investment Rating Definitions

• Buy: Expected total return of 15% or more within 12 months.
• Hold: Expected total return of plus or minus 15% within 12 months.
• Underperform: Expected total return of minus 10% or less within 12 months.
• NR/CS/NC: Ratings temporarily suspended, coverage suspended, or not covered, respectively.

Risk Factors

• NIH Funding Uncertainty: Continued declines may impact academic and biopharma research budgets.
• Competitive Pressures: Increased competition in the genomic and proteomics markets.
• Product Launch Delays: Risk of failed product launches, such as the Onso platform for Pacific Biosciences.
• Regulatory and Legal Considerations: Reports are subject to regulatory disclosures and may not be suitable for all investors.

Conclusion

The report underscores the significant decline in NIH outlays, which has negative implications for A&G research companies. While short-term recovery seems unlikely, bipartisan support for a moderated budget cut offers some hope for stabilization. Companies like 10x Genomics, Bruker, and Pacific Biosciences are BUY-rated, while Illumina is HOLD, and Standard BioTools is also BUY. Investors are urged to consider multiple factors and consult financial advisors before making decisions.