2025-06-11-Jefferies-国防领域动态_5月投资支出同比下降6_；过去3个月同比增长6_10页_176kb

报告摘要

May 2025 Performance: Investment outlays declined 5.7% year-over-year to $23.4 billion in May, primarily driven by an 8.9% y-o-y drop in Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT&E). Procurement spending also fell 2.7%, with significant declines from the Air Force (-32.1%) and Defense Wide (-15.4%), offset partially by Navy (+29.9%) and Army (+0.9%) increases.
Trailing Three Months: Outlays increased 6.5% over the three-month period ending May, as R&D rose 1.1% and procurement spending advanced 11.7%. This follows quarterly increases in prior periods.
Rolling Twelve Months: Investment outlays rose 7.7% year-over-year, indicating sustained growth trends.

The FY26 budget faces significant uncertainty, with debates between the Administration, which initially proposed a flat budget with investment cuts, and Congress. Potential for reconciliation funds could drive 24% y-o-y investment growth, but Congressional control and allocation decisions add complexity.

Historically, DoD investment outlays have lagged appropriations, with an average 8% underspending over FY19-FY23. For FY24, outlays reached 91% of appropriations, or $30 billion underspent, due to funding delays under continuing resolutions.
FY25 operates under a full-year Continuing Resolution (CR), allowing flexibility in fund allocation but complicating budget certainty.

Defense investment has shown fluctuating trends, with recent outlays tracking up 7.7% on a rolling twelve-month basis. Preventative maintenance and inventory are key focus areas, influenced by the ongoing Ukraine conflict and strategic procurement needs.

The report highlights risks associated with budget volatility and CR norms, noting that defense funding mechanisms are evolving, with Congress retaining purse-string control. Valuation assessments indicate potential for total return variations ranging from 15% to -20% based on company size and market conditions.

Defense spending is expected to continue its upward trajectory, but fiscal policy disagreements could alter growth trajectories. Emphasis is placed on investment accounts and inventory management to underpin aerospace and defense electronics sectors.

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