20230809-五矿期货-宏观_从绝对数看主要经济数据表现_6页_694kb

报告摘要

Summary of Economic Data Analysis

Introduction

Following the pandemic since 2020, this report analyzes major economic data using absolute numbers rather than growth rates to address significant fluctuations caused by abnormal bases, which can distort trends in metrics like GDP. Data from sources such as WIND is used to provide a clearer picture of post-pandemic economic performance.

Key Findings

Overall Economic Impact: The pandemic has caused substantial disruptions to economic operations, leading to high volatility in data. Using absolute values helps mitigate issues from base effects, as seen in quarters like 2021, where high growth was partly due to low prior levels.
Exports: Export data has seen a marked increase, with absolute monthly exports rising from around $2,083 billion in 2019 to $2,802 billion in 2020–2021, and maintaining a stable high level. Strategic sectors like automotive and photovoltaic industries drive growth, supported by global trade shares around 146%.
Industrial Output: Industrial value-added has grown robustly, driven by export demand and investments in emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaic equipment, with cumulative growth exceeding 38% through June 2023.
Fixed Asset Investment: This includes real estate, manufacturing, and infrastructure, each with distinct trends. Real estate peaked in 2021 and has declined since; manufacturing benefits from strategic investments but fell short of pre-pandemic highs; infrastructure saw negative growth post-2017 but has been supported for economic stabilization.
Social Consumption: While absolute retail sales have grown, the trend shows declining growth rates from nearly 20% post-2008 crisis to below 8% in 2019, accelerated during the pandemic. This slowdown links to rising household debt, which may hinder sustained consumption.
Real Estate: Serves as a key drag on the economy, with indicators like new work area declining over 50% from peaks, and sales volume falling nearly 30% year-on-year. July 2023 data highlights ongoing weakness as a major concern.
Automotive Industry: Emerged as a major growth driver post-pandemic, with China surpassing Japan as the world's largest auto exporter. July 2023 figures show significant increases in export volume and value, boosting multiple economic sectors.