2024-12-17-莱坊-UK_Logistics_Market_Dashboard_October_2024_4页_1mb

报告摘要

Industrial & Logistics Investment: In Q3 2024, investment in the industrial and logistics sector totaled over £2.5 billion, surpassing the £2.1 billion recorded in Q3 2023 and slightly above the £2.4 billion in Q2 2024. The annual total to the end of Q3 2024 is £6.8 billion, close to the £7.5 billion from the same period in 2023.
Investor Activity: REITs and listed property companies have become more active, accounting for 15% of the investment this year, compared to 5% in 2023. Institutional investors make up 16% of the market this year, down from 20% in 2023.
Yield Trends: Gilt yields remained stable in September at 4.0%, but softened to 4.5% by the end of October. Industrial equivalent yields are expected to face upward pressure due to this softening trend.

M&G Acquisition: Acquired the 197,000 sq ft, 20-unit Premier Park in Trafford Park, Manchester for £47 million, with a net initial yield (NIY) of around 3.3%. M&G also owns The Ark located opposite.
Imperial College London: Purchased the 10-acre Victoria Industrial Estate in Park Royal, Ealing for £115 million from SEGRO. The site will be used for commercial science innovation facilities.

Capital Growth: Annual UK Industrial capital growth reached 0.88% in September, up from 0.53% in August 2024. Month-on-month capital growth increased to 0.55% from 0.24% in August.
Total Returns: Annual total returns rose to 5.87% in September, from 5.49% in August 2024. Monthly total returns increased to 0.95% from 0.64% in August.

Take Up: Occupier take up in Q3 2024 totaled 9.4 million sq ft, matching the 9.5 million sq ft from the previous quarter. The year-to-date total is 27 million sq ft, compared to 30 million sq ft for the whole of 2023.
Vacancy Rate: The UK vacancy rate rose to 7.3% at the end of Q3 2024, up from 6.9% in Q2 2024. Lower development levels are expected to help curtail further increases.
Notable Transactions:
- Multi Tile Ltd: Took DC2 at Prologis Park Pineham in Northampton on a 15-year lease at £9.40 psf.
- Royal Mail: Took 121,142 sq ft at Deans Industrial Estate in Livingston, Scotland on a five-year lease at £6.55 psf.

Annual Growth: UK Industrial average rents grew by 6.22% in the year to September 2024, slightly higher than August's growth.
Monthly Growth: Monthly rental growth was 0.72% in September, up from 0.34% in August.
Forecast: RealFor forecasts UK industrial rents to grow by 5.5% in 2024, slowing to 3.7% in 2025, with a CAGR of 3.5% (2024-2028), up from 3.3% previously. The South West region is expected to see the strongest rental growth at 8.1%, while London leads with a 4.1% CAGR.

Completions: Approximately 22 million sq ft of industrial and logistics developments are expected to complete in 2024, with over 15 million sq ft already completed this year.
Pipeline: There is a current pipeline of around 15 million sq ft under construction, expected to complete in 2025. This figure may be revised as more schemes commence.

PMI Index: The UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 in October 2024 from 51.5 in September, indicating a decline in factory activity since April. New orders dropped as clients waited for the UK budget.
Supply Chain Pressure: The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) was at -0.32 in September, showing continued easing of global supply chain pressures. Businesses are focusing on supply chain resilience, leading to reshoring and nearshoring.
CBI Survey: Output volumes fell in the three months to October 2024, but at a slower pace than in September. Expectations for future output were negative but slightly improved. Hiring and investment outlooks remain subdued.
Job Vacancies: Job vacancies in the transport, logistics, and warehouse sectors have decreased, following steady growth. Vacancy levels are lower than a year ago.
Online Retail Sales: Online retail penetration (excluding auto fuel) rose slightly to 27.7% in September from 27.5% in August. Annual growth is 7.1% compared to September 2023. Online grocery retail penetration increased to 9.2% in September.

Claire Williams: Head of UK & Europe Industrial Research
Email: Claire.Williams@knightfrank.com
Phone: +44 20 3897 0036 / +44 20 7861 519
Johnny Hawkins: Head of Logistics & Industrial
Email: Johnny.Hawkins@knightfrank.com
Phone: +44 20 7861 1519
Will Gubb: Head of Industrial & Logistics Capital Markets
Email: Will.Gubb@knightfrank.com
Phone: +44 20 7861 1595
Charles Binks: Partner, Industrial & Logistics Agency
Email: Charles.Binks@knightfrank.com
Phone: +44 20 7861 1146