2009年-世界发展银行全球_The_Consequences_of_the_Missing_Girls_of_China_27页_403kb

Summary of "The Consequences of the 'Missing Girls' of China"

Core Content

This article explores the long-term social and economic consequences of China's skewed sex ratio, particularly the "missing girls" phenomenon resulting from the one-child policy and son preference culture. It highlights the increasing number of unmarried men and its implications for migration, commercial sex activity, sexually transmitted infections (including HIV), and the aging population's care system.

Main Points and Key Findings

1. Demographic Imbalance and Unmarried Men

• The one-child policy introduced in 1979 led to a significant increase in the sex ratio at birth, with cohorts born between 1980 and 2000 having 22 million more men than women.
• Projections suggest that approximately 10.4% of these men will fail to marry in the 21st century.
• The phenomenon of "bare branches" (unmarried men) is linked to lower literacy rates and worse economic prospects among those who remain single.

2. Historical Context

• High sex ratios were not new to China, as evidenced by 19th-century reports of female infant mortality.
• The 1982 Census showed that 6% of men born between 1935 and 1945 failed to marry, compared to less than 2% of women.
• The age gap between spouses has been increasing due to smaller birth cohorts and delayed marriage, which has been observed in the postwar baby boom and is expected to continue.

3. Projected Trends

• The sex ratio at birth is expected to remain skewed, with scenarios ranging from a correction to 1.06 to a further deterioration to 1.25.
• Under baseline assumptions, the share of men aged 25 and older who fail to marry is projected to exceed 5% by 2020, and could rise to 15–20% in the most pessimistic scenarios.
• A realistic increase in the age gap between spouses (up to 8 years by 2050) could mitigate the problem, but this would require a return to replacement fertility rates, which is unlikely in the near future.

4. Social and Economic Consequences

• Prostitution and commercial sex activity are likely to increase as a result of the gender imbalance.
• Sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including HIV, are expected to rise due to increased risky heterosexual contact.
• Migration patterns are influenced by the imbalance, with men from more developed areas potentially seeking brides in poorer regions.
• The distributional effects of the "bare branches" phenomenon are significant, as those with the poorest economic prospects are more likely to remain unmarried.

5. Public Health Implications

• The HIV epidemic in China has expanded beyond intravenous drug users and blood transfusion recipients, with a growing proportion of infections linked to commercial sex.
• Sex workers in regions like Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan have high HIV prevalence rates (up to 11% in 2000).
• Condom use is lower among Chinese men compared to U.S. men, increasing the risk of STI transmission.
• The article suggests that targeted public health interventions are necessary to address the risks faced by specific groups of men and sex workers.

6. Aging Population and Elderly Care

• The gender imbalance affects China's ability to care for its elderly, particularly unmarried elderly men, who lack the support of children.
• With the population aging and fertility rates declining, the shrinkage of the population is accelerated, exacerbating the care burden.

7. Policy Considerations

• The article outlines several policy options to mitigate the negative consequences of the skewed sex ratio, including:
  • Promoting gender equality and reducing son preference.
  • Encouraging marriage norms that allow for larger age gaps.
  • Implementing targeted public health programs to reduce STI transmission.
  • Revising birth control policies to address the long-term demographic consequences.

Conclusion

The "missing girls" phenomenon, driven by the one-child policy and cultural son preference, has created a significant imbalance in China's population. This imbalance is expected to lead to a large number of unmarried men, which in turn could contribute to increased commercial sex activity, higher rates of STIs, and challenges in elderly care. While some mitigation strategies are possible, the long-term demographic trends suggest that without substantial policy changes, the consequences will persist and intensify.

Key Information

• Sex ratio at birth: 1.09 (government target) to 1.25 (worst-case scenario).
• Unmarried men projections: 10.4% of men born between 1980 and 2000 will fail to marry.
• Marriage age gap: Could increase to 8 years by 2050 to reduce the number of unmarried men.
• HIV prevalence among sex workers: Up to 11% in 2000.
• Policy recommendations: Address gender imbalance, promote marriage norms, and improve public health measures.

References

• Cai and Lavely (2005): Highlight the long-term demographic impact of the one-child policy.
• Hudson and den Boer (2004): Link high sex ratios to increased crime rates.
• Parish and Farrer (2000): Discuss the concept of hypergamy in Chinese society.
• China National Bureau of Statistics (2000, 2005): Provides key demographic data.
• United Nations Population Division (2009): Projects the sex ratio balance to be achieved by 2050.