2012年-世界发展银行全球_Green_Industrial_Policy___Trade_and_Theory_33页_866kb

Green Industrial Policy: Trade and Theory Summary

Core Content

This working paper explores the reality and potential of green industrial policy, which refers to government efforts to accelerate the development of low-carbon alternatives to fossil fuels. The authors analyze the economic and policy implications of such strategies, particularly in the context of trade disputes and public policy theory.

Main Viewpoints

• Green industrial policy is motivated by similar considerations to general industrial policy, including market failures, the need to diversify energy sources, and the desire to support domestic industries.
• Two unique motivations for green industrial policy are:
  • Commitment problem: Governments cannot guarantee future profitability of green investments, leading to uncertainty among firms.
  • Endogeneity of future environmental policy: Current investments can influence future policy decisions, such as carbon pricing or emissions standards.
• Green industrial policies are often criticized for being inefficient and politically driven, but they may still be useful in shaping long-term environmental outcomes.

Key Information

Green Industrial Policies in Practice

• Five countries are analyzed: Brazil, China, the US, India, and Germany.
• These countries have implemented a wide variety of green energy policies, including:
  • Renewable energy investment has grown rapidly, with over 119 countries having national-level policies.
  • Feed-in tariffs are a common tool in promoting renewable electricity, used in 61 countries and 26 states/provinces.
  • Mandatory blending requirements are the most influential for biofuels, with 31 countries and 29 states/provinces having such laws.
• Biofuels are a significant component of green energy, with Brazil and the US being the top producers, together accounting for 88% of global ethanol production.
• Solar and wind power are the fastest-growing renewable energy sources, but still account for less than 1% of energy supply in most countries, except Germany (less than 2%).

Trade Issues

• Green industrial policy can lead to trade disputes, as seen in the US-Brazil ethanol dispute and the US-China trade conflict.
• The US-Brazil ethanol dispute is an example of trade friction caused by subsidies and tariffs. The US imposed high tariffs on Brazilian ethanol to prevent it from undercutting domestic producers.
• The US-China trade conflict is more fundamental, rooted in trade imbalances and geopolitical interests. China’s low-cost green imports may undermine long-term environmental goals in the US and Europe, but the short-term benefits of reducing fossil fuel dependence are often emphasized.

Public Policy Theory

• The theory of public policy provides insights into the effectiveness and risks of green industrial policy.
• The Green Paradox suggests that promoting green industries may increase the need for current emissions regulation, as the scarcity rent of fossil fuels declines with the development of alternatives.
• Asymmetric information and learning by doing affect the choice of policy instruments (e.g., taxes vs. quotas).
• Coordination issues arise when firms make lumpy investment decisions, and industrial policy can help align these decisions with environmental goals.

Environmental and Economic Implications

• Green industrial policies may delay the construction of high-carbon power plants and reduce future low-carbon fuel costs through economies of scale and learning by doing.
• Investment subsidies shift policy risk from private investors to taxpayers.
• Renewable energy policy is closely linked to development policy, especially in rural areas, where low-cost and practical renewable solutions are often preferred over grid expansion.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while green industrial policies may not be the cheapest way to achieve environmental goals, they can create a foundation for future benefits. The cost of achieving short-term goals is not a sufficient basis for judging the effectiveness of green industrial policy. Additionally, the resolution of trade conflicts requires cooperative agreements and reliable policy frameworks, which are currently limited by political and economic constraints.

The authors also emphasize the importance of policy theory in understanding the trade-offs and risks associated with green industrial policies, and encourage cooperative approaches to address global environmental challenges.