2025-06-16-国际清算银行-货币体系的弹性（英）_8页_293kb

报告摘要

Definition of Elasticity: Money must be provided flexibly to adjust to changing economic needs, including shocks or periods of high precautionary demand.
Two-Tier Monetary System: Involves central banks (issuing reserves) and commercial banks (extending credit via overdrafts and lines). This system allows for elastic supply of both reserves and loan commitments.

Normal Conditions: Enables smooth payments by allowing credit extensions and preventing gridlock in payment systems.
During Shocks (Covid-19 Pandemic):
- Credit lines absorbed significant shock by allowing companies to borrow against undrawn commitments.
- US data showed credit lines expanded rapidly during the pandemic, helping firms manage cash flow crunches.

Recent Trade Uncertainty: Elevated trade policy uncertainty (2024 US Presidential Election/Trade Tariffs) increased demand for liquidity via bank credit lines.
Anticipatory Actions: Companies, especially those in sectors likely affected by tariffs (e.g., 2018 US Section 301 products), expanded credit lines to prepare for tariff payments and operational challenges.
Quantitative Evidence: Cross-country data shows firms significantly increased their credit lines in anticipation of tariffs, particularly in 2024 fourth quarter.

Banking Operations & Resilience: The elastic feature relies heavily on banks being sufficiently capitalised. Weak capitalization can severely constrain elasticity, as seen historically during the 2008 crisis.
Policy Implications: Supporting bank capital and liquidity buffers is crucial to retain this essential function of the monetary system facing future stresses such as global trade conflicts or health emergencies.

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