罗兰贝格-DACH中处于十字路口的资本品公司（英）-2023.12-10页_1mb

Summary of Roland Berger Report: Capital Goods Companies in DACH Region

Overview

The DACH region (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) is facing significant challenges for capital goods companies, marked by declining order backlogs, geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, climate change, and industry transformations. The report recommends a proactive, scenario-based strategy to navigate these challenges and secure future success.

Current Situation

Order intake and sales have declined notably in 2023, with Swissmem and VDMA reporting significant drops. Companies are responding with workforce reductions and cost-cutting measures. Optimism has waned due to failed backlog replenishment, despite initial 2023 hopes driven by prior order accumulation.

Geographical Factors

• China: Economic slowdown stems from restrictive COVID policies and real estate issues; announced measures aim for domestic consumption boost, but EU-China tensions and sanctions challenge its role as a global economy driver.
• U.S.: Facing unprecedented inflation and weakened demand; monetary policies and legislative measures (e.g., Inflation Reduction Act) are in place, but economic rebound remains uncertain.
• EU/DACH: Experiencing reduced momentum; Germany, in particular, is affected by automotive industry transformation to electric vehicles, leading to potential loss of global dominance. Surveys indicate growing pessimism and restructuring needs amid labor shortages and high costs.

Verticals (Industry Analysis)

Growth prospects vary by sector:

• Sectors under pressure: Metal processing, automotive, textile machinery; these face demand volatility, margin pressures, and high competition.
• Performing well: Aerospace, environmental technology, energy transformation (e.g., hydrogen, carbon capture); renewable energy investments are increasing.
• Resilient sectors: Pharmaceuticals and medical technology; demand remains stable or grows.
  The construction industry shows regional variations, with residential construction subdued while non-residential and infrastructure remain resilient.

Offerings (Business Models)

Companies with services offering recurring revenue (e.g., maintenance, modernization) demonstrate greater resilience, enabling diversification of revenue streams and customer loyalty.

Strategic Recommendations

1. No-Regret Activities: Focus on trimming overhead and fixed costs, optimizing procurement, setting operational efficiency targets, and ensuring cash flow security.
2. Structural Enhancements: Assess and divest non-strategic assets, regionalize operations (e.g., shifting production to Mexico or Eastern Europe for key markets), refine target operating models, and enhance organizational agility.
3. Long-Term Growth: Prioritize growth areas aligned with digital transformation (e.g., AI, SAP S/4 HANA migration), foster innovation, and align with decarbonization commitments.

Conclusion

Capital goods companies in the DACH region must adopt a proactive stance to overcome challenges and leverage opportunities. Scenario planning and structured strategies are essential for emerging stronger from economic downturns and structural changes.