2025-06-11-Jefferies-elf美容公司（ELF）_洞察_罗德岛前景光明；重新审视ELF的收购_11页_382kb

e.l.f. beauty: Acquisition of Rhode

Rating

• BUY with a price target of $150, implying a 27% upside from the current price of $117.96.

Deals/Thesis

• e.l.f. beauty is acquiring Rhode, a #1 globally ranked beauty brand by Earned Media Value (EMV) and total EMV from social.
• The deal is expected to be dilution accretive to e.l.f.'s EPS by a percentage in Fiscal Year 2026.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue Est.
  • Total company FY26E sales: $1.7B
  • Rhode FY26E sales: $240M
  • EPS (FY26E): $3.71 (vs. blended $3.36 ex-acquisition)
• Valuation
  • PT ($150 = ~21x FY27E EV/EBITDA)

Key Insights

• Rhode's superior performance (Y/Y EMV growth, product innovations) serves as a catalyst for e.l.f.'s expansion.
• Ongoing momentum driven by:
  • Web traffic growth achieving over 270% Y/Y.
  • DTC channel incremental sales through product diversity and assortments.
• Portfolio benefit: Diversification beyond low-priced items ($6.50) to $20+ price points and Sephora integration.

Risks & Headwinds

• Short-term risks: Missed cost synergies, regulatory tariffs, and supply constraints.
• Long-term challenge: Maintaining product growth in a luxury or premium position amid competition.

Looking Ahead

• Continued share gains and international expansion (post-Sephora) expected.
• Scenario analysis vs. base, upside, and downside cases.