20170605-大华银行-FX_Insights_12页_1mb

报告摘要

FX Insights Summary (05 June 2017)

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of foreign exchange (FX) market movements and outlook for several currency pairs as of 05 June 2017, with a focus on the USD/SGD pair and other major pairs like EUR/SGD, GBP/SGD, AUD/SGD, JPY/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/THB, USD/CNH, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY. It also includes a table of central bank meetings for the year 2017 and the outlook for different timeframes (24-hour, 1-3 weeks, and quarterly).

Key Currency Pairs and Outlooks

USD/SGD: 1.3820

Outlook: Bearish
Support Levels: 1.3755, 1.3725
Resistance Levels: 1.3845, 1.3870
Key Event: A fresh year's low of 1.3806 was recorded after the weak May nonfarm payrolls report.
Note: The bearish phase is considered intact until the trailing stop-loss at 1.3870 is taken out.
Partial Profit Taken: At 1.3820 on 28 May.

EUR/SGD: 1.5585

Outlook: Neutral
Support Levels: 1.5520, 1.5445
Resistance Levels: 1.5600, 1.5625
Key Event: EUR/SGD is expected to trade within a consolidation range of 1.5445 to 1.5625.
Note: A move above 1.5600 could indicate a bullish shift.

GBP/SGD: 1.7775

Outlook: Neutral
Support Levels: 1.7660
Resistance Levels: 1.7920
Key Event: The outcome of the 8 June general election will impact GBP/SGD.
Note: GBP/SGD is expected to trade sideways within a range of 1.7660 to 1.7920.

AUD/SGD: 1.0265

Outlook: Bearish
Support Levels: 1.0155
Resistance Levels: 1.0310
Key Event: The RBA is expected to maintain the OCR at 1.5%.
Note: The bearish phase is intact until the trailing stop-loss at 1.0310 is taken out.

JPY/SGD: 1.2515

Outlook: Neutral
Support Levels: 1.2445
Resistance Levels: 1.2550
Key Event: A sharp rally from 1.2400 was observed.
Note: A NY close above 1.2550 would indicate a bullish phase.

USD/MYR: 4.2670

Outlook: Bearish
Support Levels: 4.2210
Resistance Levels: 4.2880
Key Event: April trade and industrial production data will be released.
Note: The bearish phase is intact until the trailing stop-loss at 4.2880 is taken out.

USD/THB: 34.06

Outlook: Shift from bearish to neutral
Support Levels: 33.95
Resistance Levels: 34.25
Key Event: Consumer confidence numbers for May will be the highlight.
Note: The pair is expected to trade sideways between 33.95 and 34.25.

USD/CNH: 6.7690

Outlook: Bearish
Support Levels: 6.7170
Resistance Levels: 6.8000
Key Event: The RMB's fixing mechanism was adjusted.
Note: The bearish phase is intact until the trailing stop-loss at 6.8000 is taken out.

CNH/SGD: 0.2039

Outlook: Bullish
Support Levels: 0.2036
Resistance Levels: 0.2048
Key Event: The pair is expected to trade within a range, with a short-term top risk.
Note: A break below 0.2036 would suggest a shift in the bullish outlook.

EUR/USD: 1.1280

Outlook: Neutral
Support Levels: 1.1210
Resistance Levels: 1.1300, 1.1330
Key Event: The ECB's policy announcement on Thursday is critical.
Note: A NY close above 1.1300 would indicate a bullish phase.

GBP/USD: 1.2870

Outlook: Neutral
Support Levels: 1.2800
Resistance Levels: 1.3010
Key Event: The 8 June general election is expected to impact GBP.
Note: The pair is expected to trade within a range of 1.2800 to 1.3010.

AUD/USD: 0.7435

Outlook: Bearish
Support Levels: 0.7390
Resistance Levels: 0.7455
Key Event: RBA's monetary policy decision and GDP data.
Note: The bearish phase is intact until the trailing stop-loss at 0.7455 is taken out.

NZD/USD: 0.7140

Outlook: Bullish
Support Levels: 0.7100
Resistance Levels: 0.7170, 0.7200
Key Event: The GDT dairy price fixing auction on Tuesday.
Note: The bullish phase is intact until the trailing stop-loss at 0.7075 is taken out.

USD/JPY: 110.45

Outlook: Neutral
Support Levels: 110.00
Resistance Levels: 111.25
Key Event: Final Q1 GDP and April current account data in Japan.
Note: A NY close below 110.00 would suggest a bearish shift.

Key Events and Data Releases

Nonfarm Payrolls: Weak May report (138K vs. 185K) led to a sharp decline in USD.
ECB Policy Announcement: Expected on Thursday, will impact EUR/USD and broader market sentiment.
RBA Decision: Expected to maintain OCR at 1.5%.
GDP Data: Australia and Japan are expected to release May GDP data.
Election: UK's 8 June general election will impact GBP.
FX Reform: Central Bank of Thailand (BOT) and Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) are set to release data on FX reform and economic indicators.

Summary of FX Outlook for 2017

Currency Pair	2Q17	3Q17	4Q17	1Q18	Rates Outlook
EUR/USD	1.11	1.12	1.13	1.13	EU: 0.00%
GBP/USD	1.23	1.22	1.21	1.20	UK: 0.25%
AUD/USD	0.74	0.75	0.75	0.76	AU: 1.50%
NZD/USD	0.70	0.71	0.71	0.72	NZ: 1.75%
USD/JPY	113	114	115	116	JP: -0.20%
USD/SGD	1.39	1.40	1.42	1.43	SG: 1.05%
USD/MYR	4.35	4.32	4.30	4.28	MY: 3.00%
USD/THB	34.5	34.8	35.0	35.3	TH: 1.50%
USD/CNY	6.80	6.82	6.85	6.88	CN: 4.35%
USD/IDR	13300	13500	13600	13700	ID: 4.75%
USD/PHP	50.2	50.6	50.9	50.9	PH: 3.25%
USD/INR	65.6	66.5	67.2	68.0	IN: 5.50%
USD/TWD	30.0	30.3	30.5	30.7	TW: 1.38%
USD/HKD	7.80	7.80	7.80	7.80	HK: 1.50%
USD/KRW	1130	1140	1150	1160	KR: 1.25%

Central Bank Meetings (2017)

Central Bank	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Federal Reserve (FOMC)	-	01	15*	-	03	14*	26	-	20*	-	01	14*
European Central Bank (ECB)	19	-	09	27	-	08	20	-	07	26	-	14
Bank of England (BOE)	-	02#	16	-	11#	15	-	03#	14	-	02#	14
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)	-	07	07	04	02	06	04	01	05	03	07	05
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)	-	09^	23	-	11^	22	-	10^	28	-	09^	-
Bank of Japan (BOJ)	31**	-	16	27**	-	16	20**	-	21	31**	-	20**
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)	19	-	02	-	12	-	13	-	07	-	09	-
Bank of Thailand (BOT)	-	08	29	-	24	-	05	16	27	-	08	21
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)	-	-	-	13	-	-	-	-	-	tba	-	-

*Meetings associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference.
#Meetings associated with release of Inflation Report.
^Meetings associated with release of Monetary Policy Statement.
**Meetings associated with release of Outlook Report.

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