20160708-大华银行-FX_Insights_12页_1mb

报告摘要

FX Insights Summary - 08 July 2016

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the foreign exchange (FX) market on 08 July 2016, focusing on the performance and outlook of various currency pairs. The analysis includes current price levels, support and resistance levels, trading ranges, and market sentiment for the short and medium term. The document also outlines the upcoming central bank meetings in 2016 and includes a disclaimer about the nature of the analysis.

Main Currency Pairs and Outlook

USD/SGD: 1.3500

Outlook: Neutral
24-Hour View: USD edged below the 1.3470/75 support and rebounded quickly, closing almost unchanged. Expected to trade sideways between 1.3470 and 1.3530.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, trading within a broad range of 1.3410 to 1.3580.

EUR/SGD: 1.4935

Outlook: Bearish
24-Hour View: EUR dipped below 1.4900 support, with a low of 1.4895/00. Expected to trade lower, likely targeting 1.4850/55.
1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, with a target at 1.4850. Stop-loss adjusted to 1.5070.

GBP/SGD: 1.7435

Outlook: Bearish
24-Hour View: Downward momentum eased, with a retest of the recent low near 1.7350 possible. Resistance at 1.7510.
1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, targeting 1.6900. Partial profit taken at 1.7700.

AUD/SGD: 1.0115

Outlook: Bullish
24-Hour View: AUD struggled to break above 1.0180 resistance. Expected to trade within a range of 1.0050 to 1.0180.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, targeting a retest of 1.0225. Stop-loss at 1.0005.

JPY/SGD: 1.3380

Outlook: Bullish
24-Hour View: JPY is expected to trade sideways between 1.3310 and 1.3430.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, targeting 1.3550. A move to 1.3800 is not ruled out.

USD/MYR: 4.0350

Outlook: Neutral
1-3 Weeks View: USD is expected to trade within a range of 3.9900 to 4.0800.

USD/THB: 35.20

Outlook: Neutral
1-3 Weeks View: USD is expected to trade within a broad range of 35.03 to 35.35.

USD/CNH: 6.6970

Outlook: Bullish
24-Hour View: USD/CNH is in a bullish phase, with room for extension to 6.7150.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with the next resistance at 6.7150 and a stop-loss at 6.6800.

CNH/SGD: 0.2015

Outlook: Bearish
1-3 Weeks View: Focus on 0.2006. A move towards this target is still possible as long as 0.2025 is intact.

EUR/USD: 1.1060

Outlook: Bearish
24-Hour View: EUR traded sideways at a narrower range. Expected to test the 1.1027/32 support.
1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, with a target at 1.0820. A retest of the post-Brexit low at 1.0909 is expected.

GBP/USD: 1.2905

Outlook: Bearish
24-Hour View: GBP moved above the 1.3020 resistance before easing off. Downward momentum is picking up.
1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, targeting a retest of 1.2700. Stop-loss at 1.3150.

AUD/USD: 0.7495

Outlook: Bullish
24-Hour View: AUD tested the 0.7560 resistance but failed. Expected to trade within a range of 0.7440 to 0.7560.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, targeting 0.7600 followed by 0.7650. Stop-loss at 0.7410.

NZD/USD: 0.7220

Outlook: Neutral
24-Hour View: NZD had a strong swing higher, reaching 0.7235. Expected to trade within a range of 0.7020 to 0.7240.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a retest of the post-Brexit high at 0.7305 possible if it breaks above 0.7280.

USD/JPY: 100.80

Outlook: Neutral
24-Hour View: USD dipped to 100.60 but rebounded weakly. Expected to retest the post-Brexit low at 99.05/10.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a target at 99.05/10. A move above 101.60 would indicate easing downward pressure.

Key Economic Data and Events

US Non-Farm Payrolls for June: Expected to be 180k, up from 38k in May. Unemployment rate likely to rise to 4.8% from 4.7%.
Malaysia is closed for public holiday.
RBNZ Deputy Governor Grant Spencer warned against further rate cuts, which led to a decline in the odds of a rate cut in the 11-Aug meeting to 40% from over 60%.
S&P Downgraded Australia's credit rating outlook to negative from stable, which affected AUD/USD.

Central Bank Meetings 2016

Central Bank	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Federal Reserve (FOMC)	27	-	16	27	-	-	27	-	21	-	02	14
European Central Bank (ECB)	21	-	10	21	-	02	21	-	08	20	-	08
Bank of England (BOE)	14	04	17	14	12	16	14	04	15	13	03	15
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)	-	02	01	05	03	07	05	02	06	04	01	06
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)	28	-	10	28	-	09	-	11	22	-	10	-
Bank of Japan (BOJ)	29	-	15	28	-	16	29	-	-	-	-	-
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)	21	-	09	-	19	-	13	-	07	-	23	-
Bank of Thailand (BOT)	-	03	23	-	11	22	-	03	14	-	09	21
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)	-	-	-	14	-	-	-	-	TBA	-	-	-

Key Takeaways

USD/CNH is in a bullish phase with room to extend to 6.7150, though it's in overbought territory.
EUR/SGD and GBP/SGD are bearish, with EUR targeting 1.4850 and GBP targeting 1.6900.
AUD/SGD and JPY/SGD are bullish, with targets at 1.0225 and 1.3550, respectively.
USD/SGD, USD/MYR, and USD/THB are in a neutral range, with no clear directional bias.
CNH/SGD is bearish, with a focus on 0.2006.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD are both bearish, with EUR expected to retest 1.0820 and GBP to retest 1.2700.
NZD/USD and USD/JPY are neutral, with a range expected for both.
The upcoming central bank meetings are important for market direction, particularly for the RBNZ and BOJ.

Disclaimer

This analysis is based on public information and is subject to change. UOB Group may have positions in the currencies and financial products mentioned. Readers are advised to evaluate the economic risks and legal, tax, and accounting implications before entering any transactions.

展开完整摘要