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报告摘要

UOB FX Insights Summary - 18 May 2016

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of various foreign exchange (FX) pairs, including short-term and medium-term outlooks, key levels, and recent market developments. It highlights the current market sentiment, technical levels, and potential moves for each pair, with a focus on USD/SGD, EUR/SGD, GBP/SGD, AUD/SGD, JPY/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/THB, USD/CNH, and CNH/SGD. The report also touches on the broader economic context, such as Fed comments, economic data, and central bank meetings, which influence FX markets.

Key FX Pairs and Outlooks

USD/SGD: 1.3710

Outlook: Bullish
Current Range: 1.3648/1.3760
Target: 1.3855/1.3740
Trailing-Stop: 1.3630/1.3600
Support: S1: 1.3660, S2: 1.3630
Resistance: R1: 1.3760, R2: 1.3790
Analysis: The short-term consolidation is nearing completion. To maintain the bullish outlook, USD needs to break above 1.3760. Long positions should look for partial profit at 1.3850/55. The pair is expected to consolidate within the range.

EUR/SGD: 1.5505

Outlook: Neutral
Current Range: 1.5540/1.5400
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: S1: 1.5450, S2: 1.5400
Resistance: R1: 1.5555, R2: 1.5600
Analysis: The pair is expected to trade sideways in a 1.5400/1.5600 range. A pull-back is possible, but a sustained move below 1.5400 is not expected.

GBP/SGD: 1.9815

Outlook: Neutral
Current Range: 1.9600/1.9900
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: S1: 1.9700, S2: 1.9600
Resistance: R1: 1.9850, R2: 1.9900
Analysis: GBP is expected to trade sideways between 1.9600 and 1.9900. A break above 1.9900 could indicate a stronger move upwards, but this is not expected.

AUD/SGD: 1.0030

Outlook: Bearish
Current Range: 0.9950/1.0150
Target: 0.9900/0.9950
Trailing-Stop: 1.0070/1.0150
Support: S1: 0.9990, S2: 0.9930
Resistance: R1: 1.0070, R2: 1.0150
Analysis: A 3-week bearish phase is close to completion. If AUD fails to stay below 0.9990 in the next 1-2 days, the outlook may shift to neutral. The pair is expected to consolidate between 0.9950 and 1.0150.

JPY/SGD: 1.2575

Outlook: Neutral
Current Range: 1.2530/1.2720
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: S1: 1.2530, S2: 1.2470
Resistance: R1: 1.2670, R2: 1.2720
Analysis: JPY briefly broke below 1.2500 but quickly rebounded. The immediate upward pressure is expected, with a possible move up to 1.2610. The pair is likely to trade within a neutral range.

USD/MYR: 4.0260

Outlook: Bullish
Current Range: 4.0070/4.0450
Target: 4.0760/4.0480
Trailing-Stop: 3.9800/3.9500
Support: S1: 4.0070, S2: 3.9800
Resistance: R1: 4.0450, R2: 4.0760
Analysis: The bullish phase is expected to face resistance at 4.0760. Partial profit was taken at 4.0570, and the stop-loss is at 3.9800. Confirmation of a short-term top is upon a break below the stop-loss.

USD/THB: 35.59

Outlook: Bullish
Current Range: 35.33/35.79
Target: 35.79
Trailing-Stop: 35.33
Support: S1: 35.44, S2: 35.33
Resistance: R1: 35.70, R2: 35.79
Analysis: The pair is in a bullish phase, with partial profit taken at 35.57. The next major resistance is at 35.79. The stop-loss is at 35.33, and a break below this would indicate a potential reversal.

USD/CNH: 6.5470

Outlook: Bullish
Current Range: 6.5350/6.5590
Target: 6.5840
Trailing-Stop: 6.5350
Support: S1: 6.5400, S2: 6.5350
Resistance: R1: 6.5530, R2: 6.5600
Analysis: The recent pull-back from the high of 6.5599 has reduced the odds of a further bullish move. Confirmation of a short-term top is upon a break below the stop-loss at 6.5350.

CNH/SGD: 0.2095

Outlook: Neutral
Current Range: 0.2082/0.2102
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: S1: 0.2087, S2: 0.2082
Resistance: R1: 0.2097, R2: 0.2102
Analysis: The pair is in a consolidation phase, likely between 0.2082 and 0.2102. No significant change in the outlook is expected.

EUR/USD: 1.1310

Outlook: Bearish
Current Range: 1.1245/1.1355
Target: 1.1215
Trailing-Stop: 1.1400
Support: S1: 1.1245, S2: 1.1215
Resistance: R1: 1.1355, R2: 1.1400
Analysis: EUR is expected to trade in a bearish range with a downside potential to 1.1215. A break above 1.1400 would indicate a potential shift in the bearish phase.

GBP/USD: 1.4450

Outlook: Neutral
Current Range: 1.4300/1.4550
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: S1: 1.4370, S2: 1.4300
Resistance: R1: 1.4490, R2: 1.4550
Analysis: GBP is expected to trade sideways between 1.4300 and 1.4550. A break above 1.4530 could indicate a stronger move upwards.

AUD/USD: 0.7315

Outlook: Shift from bearish to neutral
Current Range: 0.7200/0.7400
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: S1: 0.7270, S2: 0.7200
Resistance: R1: 0.7365, R2: 0.7400
Analysis: The bearish phase has ended after a break above 0.7355. The pair is expected to trade within a broad range of 0.7200 to 0.7400.

NZD/USD: 0.6795

Outlook: Shift from bearish to neutral
Current Range: 0.6690/0.6900
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: S1: 0.6750, S2: 0.6690
Resistance: R1: 0.6850, R2: 0.6900
Analysis: The bearish phase in NZD has ended. The pair is expected to trade within a neutral range of 0.6690 to 0.6900.

USD/JPY: 109.00

Outlook: Bullish
Current Range: 108.70/109.50
Target: 109.70
Trailing-Stop: 108.20
Support: S1: 108.40, S2: 108.20
Resistance: R1: 109.45, R2: 109.70
Analysis: USD/JPY touched a high of 109.64 but quickly pulled back. A rebound to 109.70 is still possible, but confirmation of a short-term top is upon a move below 108.20.

Central Bank Meetings in 2016

Federal Reserve (FOMC): Meetings on 16, 27, 15, 27, and 21 (April, May, June, July, September)
European Central Bank (ECB): Meetings on 10, 21, 02, 21, and 08 (March, April, May, June, September)
Bank of England (BOE): Meetings on 14, 04, 17, 14, 12, 16, 14, 04, 15, 13, 03, 15 (January to December)
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Meetings on 01, 05, 03, 07, 05, 06, 04, 01, 06 (January to December)
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): Meetings on 28, 10, 28, 09, 11, 22, 10 (January to December)
Bank of Japan (BOJ): Meetings on 29, 15, 28, 16, 29 (January to December)
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM): Meetings on 21, 09, 19, 23 (January to December)
Bank of Thailand (BOT): Meetings on 23, 11, 22, 14, 09, 21 (January to December)
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS): Meeting on 14 (April)

Disclaimer

This analysis is based on public information and is subject to change. UOB Group may have positions in the mentioned currencies and financial products and may effect transactions in them. Readers are advised to assess the economic, legal, and tax implications before entering any transaction.

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