2025-06-09-Bernstein-美国医疗保健服务_6月就业增长回归较低水平_门诊就业增长放缓_17页_2mb

U.S. Healthcare Services Analysis Summary (June 9, 2025)

Key Findings

1. Overall Payroll Growth Moderation

   • Hospital and ambulatory payrolls are normalizing after reaching peak growth rates in 2024.
   • Total payroll growth has declined from 4.3% YoY (May 2024) to 3.0% YoY (May 2025).

2. Hospital Payroll Trends

   • Hospital payrolls are now ~3% above historic trend lines after growing 2.5-3x rates since 2022.
   • Monthly growth slowed to ~3.5% YoY, up from anemic post-COVID levels but still above pre-pandemic norms.
   • Excessive payroll levels pose risks to hospital margins due to rising compensation expenses.

3. Ambulatory Sector Decline

   • Ambulatory payrolls grew at ~2x trend-line rates before slowing to 2.6% YoY, signaling a return to normal capacity growth.

4. Wage Growth

   • Hospital wages increased to ~4-5% YoY, exceeding pre-COVID levels but showing signs of deceleration (e.g., +4.1% in April 2025).
   • Ambulatory wage growth has moderated more steeply, reflecting broader inflation normalization.

5. Utilization Trends

   • Rising utilization in 2023-2024 was driven by post-COVID labor shortages and aggressive wage hikes.
   • Payroll growth decline and wage normalization suggest utilization will ultimately revert to ~1.5% growth.

6. Investment Outlook

   • Lance Wilkes & Team recommend:
     • Outperform: CNC, ELV, AGL, HUM, UNH (Target prices: $86, $585, $7.50, $313, $377)
     • Market-Perform: CI, CVS
   • Labor supply constraints and wage inflation are key drivers of future trends. Addressing these trends is crucial for sustaining business relevance amid ongoing healthcare sector volatility.