斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-Addressing-Missile-Threats-in-the-Middle-East-and-North-Africa_12页_201kb

Summary of "Addressing Missile Threats in the Middle East and North Africa"

Core Content

The document discusses the proliferation of missiles in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, emphasizing the role of missile technology in regional security dynamics and the need for a comprehensive approach to address associated risks. It highlights the lack of an international treaty specifically regulating missiles and the limitations of existing voluntary instruments like the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and the Hague Code of Conduct (HCOC). The report focuses on the arsenals of key states—Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia—and the broader implications of missile proliferation in the region.

Main Points

• Missile Proliferation in MENA: At least 10 out of 19 MENA states possess missiles capable of attacking high-value targets within other states. The proliferation is linked to intractable security dilemmas, arms exports, and the use of force by extra-regional states.

• Missile Capabilities by Key States:

  • Iran: Has a diverse range of ballistic and cruise missiles, with ranges up to 2000 km. It has tested precision-guided systems and is suspected of developing nuclear-armed ICBMs. Iran has supplied missiles to non-state actors and has been accused of attacking Saudi oil facilities.
  • Israel: Possesses nuclear-armed ballistic missiles (Jericho series) with ranges up to 4000 km. It also uses air-launched cruise missiles and loitering munitions. Israel has a robust missile defense system, including Iron Dome and Arrow.
  • Saudi Arabia: Has a small arsenal of DF-3 ballistic missiles and has ordered more advanced systems. It uses SCALP/Storm Shadow ALCMs and has developed a local SRBM production line.
  • Other States: The UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Algeria, and Turkey also possess missile capabilities, often through imports or domestic development. Some states have been accused of using missiles in conflicts, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia in Yemen.

• Missile Use in Conflicts: Missiles have been used in the Iran-Iraq War, the 1991 Scud attacks, and more recently in conflicts in Syria and Yemen. Their use is increasing, driven by regional security concerns and the effectiveness of guided missiles in modern warfare.

• Missile Defense Systems: Israel and Gulf states have invested heavily in missile defense systems, such as Patriot and THAAD. These systems have raised concerns about Iranian efforts to develop more advanced, maneuverable missiles to bypass them.

• International Instruments: The MTCR and HCOC are the main voluntary instruments aimed at controlling missile proliferation, but they lack universal support. The UN Register of Conventional Arms (UNROCA) is underutilized, with only Israel regularly reporting missile imports.

• Need for Transparency: MENA states are generally secretive about their missile holdings, which complicates risk assessments and contributes to mistrust. Greater transparency through multilateral instruments and regional reporting could help build cooperative security.

• Arms Export Risks: Arms exports to the region, especially to states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, can exacerbate military asymmetries. The EU and other states should scrutinize these exports more carefully.

• Comprehensive Risk Assessment: Efforts to control missile proliferation must consider broader regional security dynamics, not just the focus on specific states like Iran.

• Restoring the Iran Nuclear Deal: The JCPOA was initially effective in curbing Iran's nuclear and missile programs but has been undermined by the US withdrawal. Restoring the deal could help de-escalate tensions and reduce missile-related risks.

• Confidence- and Security-Building Measures (CSBMs): The document advocates for CSBMs such as pre-notification of missile launches and regional dialogue to address the root causes of militarization and manage missile-related risks.

Key Recommendations

• Increase Transparency: MENA states should participate in international transparency mechanisms like the HCOC and UNROCA.
• Clarify International Norms: There is a need for an inclusive international discussion on missile definitions and regulations, possibly through a new UN-led expert dialogue.
• Promote Responsible Arms Exports: Suppliers should assess the risks of arms exports to the region and ensure they do not exacerbate military asymmetries.
• Strengthen Conflict Management: Efforts to de-escalate tensions between Iran and the US, and to manage regional conflicts, are essential.
• Engage in CSBMs: Regional and extra-regional actors should explore CSBMs to reduce the risks of missile proliferation and build mutual trust.

Conclusion

Missile proliferation in MENA is a complex and long-term issue, driven by regional security concerns and external arms transfers. While existing instruments provide some control, they are insufficient without a broader, more inclusive approach. The report calls for increased transparency, clarification of international norms, responsible arms exports, and CSBMs to address the growing missile threat in the region.