2002年-世界发展银行全球_FYR_Macedonia___Agriculture_Sector_Review_107页_6mb

FYR Macedonia Agriculture Sector Review Summary

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the agriculture sector in FYR Macedonia, highlighting its economic role, trade dynamics, institutional challenges, and the need for reform. It was prepared by the World Bank in collaboration with the Macedonian government and other donors, with the aim of supporting the country's transition to a more competitive and sustainable agricultural system. The report was finalized in 2002, taking into account the country's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its aspirations for EU membership.

Main Points

Macroeconomic and Institutional Situation

• FYR Macedonia has experienced slow and variable economic progress over the last decade, influenced by political and economic shocks and incomplete reforms.
• Agriculture contributes around 18% to GDP and is a key sector for the economy.
• Structural reforms in agriculture began in 1994, including partial privatization of state-owned enterprises (AKs) and a reduction in budgetary support.
• The private sector is becoming more influential, but benefits to the rural sector have been slow due to ongoing challenges.

Agricultural Trade and Incentive Structure

• Agricultural trade is vital for FYR Macedonia as a small economy with structural deficits in most food commodities.
• Current trade policies restrict trade, with most imports covered by free trade agreements (FTAs) with the EU and regional partners.
• The new WTO trade regime will significantly impact the incentive structure for agriculture, affecting the level and composition of agricultural output.
• Nominal protection coefficients (NPCs) are high for most major agricultural products, indicating a lack of competitiveness in export and domestic markets.
• Despite this, there is potential for competitiveness in horticultural products and small ruminant production if challenges like labor supply are addressed.

The Rural Economy

• Agriculture accounts for 10% of GDP and is the only sector to have increased output since independence.
• Agricultural exports make up about 17% of total exports, including wine, tobacco, horticultural products, and lamb.
• Approximately 45% of the population and 36% of the labor force live in rural areas.
• Land is mostly fragmented and small-scale, with 79% of cultivable land in individual farms.
• The country's irrigation system is in poor condition, with coverage reduced to 13% of suitable areas and inefficiencies leading to crop damage.

Agroprocessing and Marketing

• FYR Macedonia has a large agroprocessing sector, with about 425 enterprises, many of which were part of former AKs.
• Most agroprocessors are inefficient, suffering from poor management, outdated technology, and non-compliance with export standards.
• The post-harvest marketing system for fresh produce is underdeveloped, with poor infrastructure and limited sorting, grading, and packaging facilities.
• Wholesale markets are rudimentary, and urban green markets are also underdeveloped.
• The emergence of small private agroprocessing companies presents potential for growth and displacement of inefficient incumbents.

Rural Poverty

• Poverty incidence increased sharply from 1993 to 1998, reaching 21%.
• In 2001, the median monthly adult equivalent consumption was MKD 10,610 (US$150), with an official poverty line at MKD 6,366 (US$90).
• Rural poverty is more extensive than urban poverty, with 25% of rural households below the poverty line.
• Non-agricultural rural households have become the largest group of poor.
• Women make up 48% of the labor force, and their employment is crucial for poverty reduction.
• The government has developed a National Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) to address long-term poverty reduction.

Key Sub-Sectors and Restructuring Requirements

Agroprocessing

• Marketing cooperatives can play a role in post-harvest activities and some processing.
• Private agroprocessors and traders are expected to lead in developing competitive high-value production.
• The sector requires modernization, including investment in technology and better access to inputs and credit.
• Support for agroprocessors should focus on improving quality, compliance with export standards, and competitiveness.

Agriculture and Horticulture

• There is significant potential to improve crop quality and yields.
• Private farms now have better access to inputs and technical advice than AKs.
• The lack of a modern seed regime and insufficient seasonal credit hinder progress.
• Marketing of fresh horticultural produce is dominated by small private traders, but lacks standardization and grading.

Livestock

• Livestock production is characterized by small, subsistence-oriented farms and a decline in large, specialized enterprises.
• The pig and dairy industries have shown growth, while cattle, sheep, and poultry have contracted.
• Family farming appears to offer equal or better returns to land, labor, and capital than enterprise farming.
• Forestry laws and regulations need to be revised to align with EU standards.
• Livestock products need to be privatized, and access to world-class genetics is limited.

Forestry

• Forests cover about 1 million hectares (39% of the land area), mostly state-owned.
• The forestry sector is underperforming due to weak policy and outdated production technologies.
• Annual off-take is low, with 73% used as fuel rather than for wood products.
• New plantings are minimal, and there is limited regeneration of harvested areas.
• The sector requires substantial investment and policy reform to improve productivity and sustainability.

Institutional and Policy Recommendations

• The government should reduce distortions in the incentive and competition structure through comprehensive policy reform.
• Resources in ex- and current AKs and state forests should be made productive.
• Rural credit and financial institutions need to be expanded to support small and medium enterprises.
• The investment environment should be improved to encourage private-sector participation and SME development.
• Irrigation and rural infrastructure need modernization to support high-yield and high-quality production.
• Public agricultural institutions should be developed and modernized to better support the sector.
• Private-sector agricultural institutions should be supported to enhance competitiveness.
• Poverty should be addressed by increasing employment and family incomes, with a focus on women and youth.
• Government should avoid picking winners and instead create an enabling environment for investment and production.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for institutional and policy reforms to enhance the competitiveness and sustainability of FYR Macedonia's agriculture sector. It highlights the importance of improving infrastructure, streamlining regulations, and supporting both public and private actors in the sector. The ultimate goal is to create an environment where the agricultural value chain can thrive and contribute significantly to economic growth and poverty reduction.