2017年-世界发展银行全球_Zimbabwe_Economic_Update_June_2017___The_State_in_the_Economy_59页_6mb

Zimbabwe Economic Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of Zimbabwe's economic developments and challenges, with a focus on the public sector and state-owned enterprises (SEPs). It outlines the country's fiscal and monetary policy landscape, the impact of the 2015/16 drought, and the outlook for 2017 and beyond. The report is prepared by the World Bank and includes contributions from various stakeholders, including the Government of Zimbabwe.

Main Points

Economic Performance

• GDP Growth: Zimbabwe's GDP growth rate fell from 1.4% in 2015 to 0.7% in 2016, continuing negative per capita income growth.
• Private Sector: Severe credit constraints caused a significant contraction in private demand, with per capita consumption falling by about 5%.
• Agriculture: The agricultural sector contracted for the second consecutive year, with output falling by 5% in 2015 and another 3.6% in 2016. However, favorable rains in 2016/17 are expected to boost agricultural output in 2017.
• Mining: The mining sector showed strong growth in 2016, increasing by 8.2%, driven by higher production of platinum and gold. However, diamond production fell by over 25% due to the transition to hard-rock mining.
• Manufacturing: The sector's growth remained low at 0.3% in 2016, constrained by high financing costs, a restrictive regulatory framework, and inadequate infrastructure.
• Services: The services sector grew at 1.7% in 2016, with the hotel and restaurant sub-sector maintaining positive growth at 2.7% due to rising tourist arrivals.

Poverty and Social Impact

• Poverty: The drought and liquidity crisis exacerbated poverty, particularly in rural areas. Extreme poverty increased from 2.3 million in 2014 to an estimated 2.8 million in 2016.
• Agricultural Impact: The agricultural sector, a primary livelihood for many poor households, suffered from reduced output and delayed payments to workers, worsening food insecurity.

Fiscal Challenges

• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit widened to around 10% of GDP in 2016, with public revenue declining by 6.3% and public expenditure rising significantly.
• Public Debt: Total public debt reached 70% of GDP in 2016, with external debt accounting for two-thirds of the debt stock. Most of the debt is held by commercial banks.
• Wage Bill: The central government wage bill accounted for about 90% of public revenue and 66% of public spending in 2016, significantly crowding out other priorities.
• Local Authorities (LAs): LAs face fiscal challenges due to limited oversight and rising personnel costs, which have forced them to rely more on user fees and other extra-budgetary revenues.

Monetary and Financial Sector

• Liquidity Crisis: The fiscal expansion in 2016 triggered a liquidity crunch, forcing banks to limit cash withdrawals and import payments.
• Bond Notes: Introduction of new bond notes in November 2016 eased liquidity shortages but did not address underlying macroeconomic imbalances.
• Credit Constraints: Tight credit conditions and the inability of Zimbabwean banks to honor international payments contributed to a 14% contraction in imports.

Key Information

Fiscal Policy

• The central government shifted to an expansionary fiscal stance in 2016, leading to a liquidity crisis and crowding out private sector credit.
• The government financed the widening fiscal deficit through Treasury bills and a US$1 billion overdraft with the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ).
• Revenue fell by 6.3% in 2016, the first such decline since 2009, while public expenditure rose sharply due to drought response measures and the public-sector wage bill.

Public Sector Reforms

• Local Authorities: LAs face significant fiscal challenges due to limited oversight and high personnel costs. They have increasingly relied on user fees and other extra-budgetary sources.
• State-Owned Enterprises (SEPs): SEPs, including ZESA and ZETDC, are major contributors to the public sector but also generate substantial contingent liabilities. The government guarantees their debt, which has increased public financial strain.
• Fiscal Adjustments: The government is implementing measures to rationalize the public-sector wage bill and reduce public expenditure pressures. Consolidating fiscal accounts and improving SEP governance are key next steps.

Debt and Liquidity

• Total public debt reached 70% of GDP in 2016, with external debt (mostly in arrears) making up two-thirds of the total.
• The government has made progress in clearing external arrears, including US$108 million to the IMF's Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust.
• The liquidity crisis has contributed to a narrowing of the current account deficit, but Zimbabwe's external position remains precarious.

Outlook

• GDP Growth: The GDP growth rate is expected to recover to 2.8% in 2017, driven by favorable rains and a revitalized agriculture sector.
• Medium-Term Projections: However, medium-term growth remains modest due to incomplete fiscal adjustment and potential inflation from a rising money supply.
• Debt Sustainability: Restoring fiscal and debt sustainability is critical for long-term growth. The government must reduce the country-risk premium in international capital markets.
• Investment and Reform: Structural reforms and large-scale investment are necessary to improve productivity, lower costs, and sustain growth in key sectors.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Growth Rates and Investment-to-GDP Ratios, Zimbabwe and Selected Comparators, 2012-16

• Figure 2: Growth of the Mining Sector, 2012-16

• Figure 3: Growth and Poverty Rates, 2011-2016

• Figure 4: Total Public Debt Stock

• Figure 5: Key Fiscal Indicators, 2011-16

• Figure 6: Financial Sector Indicators, 2011-16

• Figure 7: Balance of Payments

• Figure 8: Trends in LA Revenue by Source, 2011-2014 (US$ millions)

• Figure 9: Disaggregated Local Government Revenues (US$ millions)

• Figure 10: Cost Recovery among Water Utilities and Water-Service Coverage, All Urban Local Authorities, 2012-2015 Average

• Figure 11: Revenue and Expenditure Trends among Local Authorities, 2011-14 (US$ millions)

• Figure 12: Local Authorities' Fiscal Deficit

• Figure 13: Debts Across Local Authorities

• Figure 14: Salary Arrears, 2015 (US$ millions)

• Figure 15: SEP Contribution to GDP by Sector (Average 2012-2014)

• Figure 16: SEP Employment by Sector

• Figure 17: Aggregate SEP Financial Balance

• Figure 18: SEP Employment and Compensation

• Figure 19: Current Assets and Liabilities

• Figure 20: SEP Net Contribution to the Treasury (Average 2011-2015)

• Figure 21: Explicit Contingent Liabilities by Sector

• Figure 22: Executive Compensation by Sector

• Table 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, Estimated and Projected, 2014-2019

Conclusion

Zimbabwe faces significant fiscal and macroeconomic challenges, with a large and fragmented public sector contributing to a substantial debt burden. The government's shift to an expansionary fiscal stance in 2016 exacerbated liquidity shortages and credit constraints. To restore fiscal sustainability and unlock long-term growth potential, the government must implement structural reforms, reduce the public-sector wage bill, and improve oversight of SEPs and LAs. The introduction of new bond notes has eased liquidity but does not address underlying issues. Sustained growth will depend on addressing these challenges through multi-stakeholder collaboration and sound policy implementation.