高力国际-2018养老地产展望（英文版）-2018.5.14-12页-1mb

报告摘要

Senior Housing Outlook 2018 Summary

Core Content

Asia is experiencing a significant demographic shift due to an ageing population, which is expected to nearly triple to 945 million people aged 65 and above by 2050. This includes a substantial increase in the number of seniors aged 75 and above, who will require assistance with daily living, rising from 137 million to 437 million over the same period. This trend, often referred to as the "silver tsunami," presents major challenges for health and pension systems, as well as for housing infrastructure.

Main Trends and Implications

Ageing Population Growth: The proportion of seniors in the population is expected to increase significantly, with Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand leading the way, projected to have 36.4%, 35.3%, 33.9%, 33.6%, and 29% seniors respectively by 2050.
Labour Force Decline: As the proportion of seniors grows, the working-age population will shrink, potentially impacting productivity and economic growth.
Global Housing Models: Western countries have developed comprehensive models for senior housing that address the full continuum of care, from independent living to skilled nursing. These models are not yet widely adopted in Asia.

Key Housing Models in Asia

Housing Developments for Active Seniors: These are the most common, designed for independent, mobile seniors aged 55 and above. They include recreational facilities and social programs.
In-Home Care: Seniors receive care services in their own homes, often at lower costs but requiring family or friends to provide ongoing support.
Assisted Living Facilities: Provide help with daily activities and have trained staff, suitable for those who need some level of assistance but not full-time medical care.
Skilled Nursing Care Facilities: Offer 24/7 medical care for those with complex health conditions, often including specialized therapy services and units for Alzheimer's and dementia patients.

Emerging Models and Innovations

Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs): These provide a full range of care in a single community, allowing seniors to transition smoothly between different levels of care. They are prevalent in the U.S. and are beginning to be considered for adoption in Asia.
Deferred Management Fee (DMF) Model: Popular in the UK and Australia, this model allows seniors to purchase units at below-market rates and pay a deferred fee upon exit, typically capped after a certain number of years.
Life Care Plans: These require a higher entrance fee but guarantee a significant refund (up to 90%) to the senior or their heirs, offering a balance between upfront investment and long-term financial planning.

Challenges and Opportunities

Cultural Considerations: Traditional Asian family structures, where children care for elderly parents, may influence the demand for certain housing models. However, changing migration patterns and economic conditions may shift this dynamic.
Service Quality and Design: Ensuring high-quality care and user-friendly, socially engaging housing environments is critical for the success of senior housing projects.
Business Model Adaptation: Western models must be adapted to fit local contexts, especially in terms of financing, cultural acceptance, and long-term viability.
Middle-Class Demand: As Asia becomes more affluent, there will be a growing demand for mid-range senior housing solutions that are accessible and affordable.

Conclusion

The increasing elderly population in Asia necessitates a rethinking of housing and care models. While traditional family-based care remains prevalent, the need for independent and assisted living options is growing. Developers and policymakers must consider cultural, economic, and demographic factors to create sustainable and adaptable senior housing solutions that meet the evolving needs of the aging population.

Key Figures

Senior Population Growth: From 137 million to 437 million aged 75+ by 2050.
Projected Senior Percentage: Japan (36.4%), South Korea (35.3%), Hong Kong (33.9%), Singapore (33.6%), Thailand (29%).
Exit Fee Model: 3% per year, capped at 30% after 10 years.
Life Care Plan Refund: Up to 90% of the entrance fee.

Contact Information

Justin Butler: Managing Director Healthcare Valuation | US | justin.butler@colliers.com
Max Broadbent: Director of Healthcare UK | max.broadbent@colliers.com
David Faulkner: Managing Director Valuation & Advisory | Asia | david.faulkner@colliers.com
Shalain Singh: Head of Healthcare & Retirement Living Australia | shalain.singh@colliers.com
Website: www.colliers.com