2022-07-15-莱坊-Seniors_Housing_Development_Update_2022_5页_4mb

Seniors Housing Development Update Summary (2022)

• Market Overview: The UK seniors housing market is growing due to an aging population, with projections indicating nearly 14 million people aged over 65 by 2037, up from current levels. This demographic shift creates a significant mismatch between supply and demand, projected to increase demand for age-appropriate housing.

• Investment Growth: Institutional investment has surged, with £1.4 billion invested in 2021, primarily in Integrated Retirement Communities (IRCs), which provide higher levels of care. This trend is expected to accelerate, driven by strong demographic fundamentals and interest in social infrastructure, including ESG-focused investments.

• Supply and Demand: New units delivered in 2021 reached over 7,500 units, with cumulative units from 2011 to 2021 totaling nearly 80,000. Forecasts suggest an additional 63,290 units over the next five years (2021-2026), with IRC segments growing by 46% and retirement housing by 4%. However, delivery rates still lag demand, with occupancy and income resilient across schemes.

• Market Segmentation: The market includes retirement housing (offering self-contained or rental units) and IRC schemes (providing care services). Delivery sizes are increasing, with more large-scale developments, and planning pipelines indicate continued growth, though challenges like land scarcity and rising construction costs persist.

• Challenges and Opportunities: Key obstacles include planning hurdles, limited new land supply, and higher operational costs. Opportunities arise from diversifying offerings (e.g., mixed tenure schemes), increasing private capital inflows, and policy support for seniors housing, which can enhance resident wellbeing and reduce reliance on social services.

Source: Knight Frank Research