兰德-美国对加沙地带的政策（英文）-2018.2-17页

United States Policy toward the Gaza Strip: A Summary

Core Content

The United States has pursued a policy toward the Gaza Strip that is primarily aimed at supporting a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While the U.S. has not developed an explicit policy for Gaza, its actions have been guided by the broader objective of weakening Hamas and strengthening the Palestinian Authority (PA). This approach has evolved over time, particularly after the 2005 Israeli disengagement from Gaza, and has been shaped by both international dynamics and domestic political constraints.

Main Views and Key Points

U.S. Policy Evolution

• Post-2005: The U.S. supported Israel's disengagement from Gaza but also aimed to prevent the emergence of a failed state. It emphasized the need for the PA to take over governance and security in the West Bank and Gaza.
• Hamas's Rise: After the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections, Hamas gained significant power, which the U.S. and the Quartet refused to recognize. This led to a financial crisis for the PA and indirectly strengthened Hamas.
• Obama Era: The U.S. became more involved in Gaza following the three major Israel-Hamas wars (Cast Lead, Pillar of Defense, Protective Edge). It organized donor conferences and focused on improving the Strip’s infrastructure, such as electricity, water, and access.
• Trump Era: The Trump administration showed interest in improving Gaza’s living conditions and began engaging with both Israel and Egypt to support Palestinian reconciliation. However, it also supported President Abbas's decision to cut electricity and medical aid to Gaza, which worsened the humanitarian crisis.

U.S. Interests and Leverage

• Key Interests: The U.S. is interested in promoting stability, development, and a two-state solution. It aims to support the PA and improve the quality of life for Gazans.
• Leverage: The U.S. has significant economic and political influence over Israel, Egypt, and the broader international community. It can use this to encourage aid and access for Gaza.
• Limitations: Domestic political constraints, particularly the opposition to engaging with Hamas, limit the U.S.'s ability to act more directly. The Taylor Force Act exemplifies this, as it threatens to cut economic aid to the PA if it does not cease supporting terrorism.

Key Information

• The U.S. has not had official personnel in Gaza since 2003, following the death of three Americans in an attack on a diplomatic convoy.
• The U.S. has consistently conditioned aid on Hamas renouncing violence and recognizing Israel.
• The U.S. has supported infrastructure projects in Gaza, such as the gas for Gaza initiative and improved water supply agreements.
• The U.S. has played a role in mediating between Israel and other regional actors, including Turkey and Qatar, to provide aid to Gaza.
• The U.S. has not opposed the PA's actions that have worsened the humanitarian situation in Gaza, such as cutting electricity and medical aid.

Policy Recommendations

• Develop a Coherent Policy: The U.S. should evaluate its current strategy and decide whether it supports Palestinian reconciliation and a two-state solution.
• Leverage Relationships with Israel and Egypt: Use strong ties with these countries to facilitate greater humanitarian aid and economic development in Gaza.
• Prioritize Gaza in PA Engagement: Ensure that the PA is not neglected in U.S. policy discussions, especially when dealing with Abbas.
• Focus on Three Pillars: Concentrate on improving water, electricity, and access/movement in Gaza to support long-term stability.
• Lead Reconstruction Efforts: The U.S. should take a leadership role in mobilizing international aid and reconstruction efforts in Gaza.

Conclusion

Despite its strategic interest in a two-state solution, the U.S. has remained relatively disengaged from Gaza due to political and legal constraints. However, recent developments, such as the PA-Hamas reconciliation, present an opportunity for the U.S. to increase its involvement in stabilizing the Strip. The U.S. must balance its support for the PA with the need to improve conditions in Gaza, ensuring that its policies do not inadvertently weaken the prospects for peace.