20230816-招银国际-NBS_7M23_data__awaiting_for_more_policy_implementation_3页_797kb

Summary

Report Overview

CMB International Global Markets Equity Research Sector Update on China Property Sector, dated 16 Aug 2023. Rating: OUTPERFORM (Maintain). Authors: Miao Zhang and Nika Ma.

Key Data Findings

• NBS data for July-August 2023 shows sluggish property investment and sales, with investment declining 12% YoY and sales falling 19% YoY.
• New housing starts deteriorated, while completions increased due to seasonality and delivery-focused policies.
• Secondary sales improved moderately in August amid policy positivity, but new home sales remain weak.

Outlook

• Short-term (Oct-August): Challenges in boosting buyer confidence and addressing developer defaults persist; slight improvement in secondary market.
• Three-quarter trend: Sales pressure continues due to limited policy impact; market volatility expected from SOE risks.
• Recovery anticipated with policy rollout, but cautious.

Recommendations

• Recommended plays: Property agency - BEKE; Developers - CRL, Yuexiu, Binjiang; Services - Binjiang Service, Poly Services, COPH, CR MixC; Also notes CMBIGM ratings for stocks and industry.