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E-fuels in China's Road Transport Transition

The report explores the potential of e-fuels (e-hydrogen, e-methanol, and e-gasoline) in achieving net-zero decarbonization for China's road transport sector by 2060. It highlights that e-fuels, produced from renewable energy and recycled CO₂, can reduce GHG emissions by 70–90%, comparable to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) using renewable electricity.

Key points include:

1. Environmental Impact:

   • Vehicles powered by e-fuels (HEVs, FCEVs, e-gasoline ICEVs) can achieve lifecycle GHG emissions similar to BEVs in a low-carbon grid by 2035–2050.
   • e-Gasoline blends (e.g., 47–85% e-gasoline) in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) could match BEV levels under projected grid decarbonization.

2. Energy Efficiency:

   • E-fuels enable renewable energy uptake by harnessing solar/wind power, avoiding curtailment.
   • However, they incur energy losses (38–58% from electricity to fuel), with overall efficiency comparable to direct EV supply.

3. Cost Analysis:

   • Current costs are 2–3x higher than fossil fuels; e-methanol production is projected to halve by 2030, lowering e-gasoline costs significantly.
   • Cost reductions rely on hybrid renewables, carbon capture advancements, and optimized synthesis.

4. Policy Recommendations:

   • Support collaboration between industries for e-fuel integration.
   • Promote "drop-in" e-gasoline for existing fleets.
   • Recycle industrial CO₂ for e-fuel synthesis and leverage China's coal value chain.
   • Establish LCA-based policies to incentivize decarbonization across supply chains.

E-fuels align with China’s climate goals, offering flexible decarbonization pathways for hard-to-abate transport sectors once costs decline by leveraging renewable resources and industrial synergies.