IMF-约旦_根据扩展基金设施的扩展安排进行的第三次审查_并要求修改绩效标准_并要求根据弹性和可持续性设施释放进行安排；员工报告；和约旦执行董事的声明（英）-2025_124页_2mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 25/155: Jordan's Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for an RSF Arrangement

1. Context and Recent Developments

• Economic Resilience: Despite external headwinds (regional conflicts, global uncertainty), Jordan maintained macroeconomic stability supported by sound policies and international support. Growth was slightly stronger than projected in 2024 (2.5%), reflecting a recovery in regional activity. Inflation remained low and stable, with the central bank anchoring inflation through a dollar peg.
• Fiscal Performance: The EFF-supported program remained on track, with fiscal targets met in 2024. Public debt stood at 90.2% of GDP, and the government advanced fiscal consolidation despite revenue shortfalls from conflicts. Structural reforms in tax administration and competition strengthened policy implementation.

2. Program Objectives and Outcomes

• Extended Fund Facility (EFF): Jordan’s EFF arrangement (approved January 2024) provides funding equivalent to 270% of its quota ($700 million) to support economic policies. The arrangement is fully financed, with donor support from international partners.
• Third Review: Staff approved a $97.784 million purchase under the EFF, contingent on modifications to three PCs reflecting fiscal calendar adjustments.

3. Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) Request

• Purpose: The RSF arrangement aims to address long-term vulnerabilities in the water and energy sectors, enhance pandemic preparedness, and improve fiscal resilience. The access level is 150% of Jordan's IMF quota ($514.65 million), with an ambitious 30-month timeline.
• Key Measures: 13 reform measures are proposed under three pillars:
  • Energy and Water Resilience: Expand renewable energy storage, improve energy efficiency, achieve water cost recovery by 2032.
  • Fiscal Reforms: Strengthen climate-related risk assessments in budgeting, enhance Public Financial Management (PFM).
  • Health Preparedness: Codify emergency financing frameworks and ensure service continuity during pandemics.

4. Fiscal and Sectoral Reforms

• Fiscal Policy: A Medium-Term Revenue Strategy (MTRS) aims to raise revenues, reduce public deficits, and place debt on a downward path to below 80% of GDP by 2028.
• Utilities Reforms:
  • Energy: Roll out time-based tariffs and smart grids to reduce peak demand. A storage project (40 MWh minimum) targets grid stability.
  • Water: Update the Financial Sustainability Roadmap (FSR), reduce non-revenue water (NRW), and engage private operators for performance improvement.
• Monetary and Financial Policies: The Central Bank maintained stability, aligned with Fed rates and ensuring robust capital buffers.

5. Risks and Policy Recommendations

• Risks: Macroeconomic and structural challenges include regional conflicts, climate change impacts, and financing gaps. However, debt sustainability assessments confirm the program is manageable.
• Staff Appraisal: Commendations for strong program implementation. Risks remain high due to persistent external headwinds, but reforms are deemed of high quality and feasible. Adherence to governance and fiscal纪律 is crucial.

6. Key Indicators (Key Tables)

• External Position: Current account deficit projected at ~6% of GDP (2025).
• Monetary Policy: Broad money growth slowed but inflation remains subdued.
• Debt Metrics: Public debt-to-GDP ratio projected to decline from 90.2% (2024) to ~73% (2027).
• Oil Prices: Brent prices fluctuate, impacting import bills; RE integration enhances energy security.

7. Data and Appendixes

• Annex I: Risk Assessment Matrix and Debit Sustainability Analysis highlight moderate risks but manageable scenarios.
• Annex III: Climate and health vulnerability analyses stress the need for adaptation measures.
• Large Oil Supplies
• Annex II: Detailed framework for public debt management.

Conclusion

Jordan’s engagement with the IMF underscores a commitment to resilience, fiscal consolidation, and inclusive growth. The EFF and RSF programs are strategically timed to address immediate and long-term challenges, supported by robust donor partnerships and policy adjustments.