2025-06-03-Jefferies-美国联邦航空管理局（FAA）最新动态_2025年5月过去12个月的航空运输飞行员（ATP）证书数量相比2019年增长23_但同比下降27_12页_215kb

US Airlines Equity Research Summary

Overview of FAA Pilot Certificates

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issues pilot certificates that determine flight privileges based on experience and training. Certificates include:

• Student: Requires 0 hours, allows training with an instructor.
• Private: Requires 40 hours, permits personal or business flying.
• Commercial: Requires 250 hours, enables flying for hire (e.g., charter, cargo, instruction).
• Airline Transport (ATP): Requires 1,500 hours, allows flying for scheduled airlines.

Pilot Certificate Issuances in May 2025

• Total Certificates: 8,382 issued, down 7% YoY from May 2024 (up 20% MoM from April 2025) and +14% above May 2019 levels.
• Breakdown:
  • Student: 3,834 certificates (-8% YoY), -5% below 2019 levels.
  • Private: 2,556 certificates (+8% YoY), +63% above 2019 levels.
  • Commercial: 1,437 certificates (-14% YoY), +20% above 2019 levels.
  • ATP: 555 certificates (-34% YoY), -1% below 2019 levels.
• TTM Data: TTM ATP certificates at 8,382 (up 23% YoY vs. pre-pandemic levels but down from prior), reflecting pent-up demand effects.

Pilot Supply and Demand Analysis

• Current Status: Mild oversupply in 2024 (0.4K excess pilots, 0.3% YoY), but deficits will emerge as retirements increase.
  • Estimated 2024 demand: 143.7K pilots; supply met through training and retirements.
• Future Projections:
  • 2024: 5,000-pilot deficit starting (-0.5% YoY to 0.5%, widening to 1K deficit in 2026 (1%, or ~1K) and 4K deficit in 2030 (2.4%).
  • Caused by: 30% of pilots (49K individuals) over 55 years old, retiring over next decade; slow pipeline due to high training costs ($120K average, 3.5-year commitment) and disincentives.
• Key Drivers: Aged workforce, fleet expansion (demand increases by 2% CAGR through 2025, driven by narrowbody growth), and union deals raising wages.

Key Conclusions

• Near-term oversupply may mask longer-term shortages, exacerbated by retirements.
• Airlines may need to fund pilot training costs to address demand gaps, mitigating shortages by 2026-2030.