世界经济论坛-自然气候解决方案与净零碳排放（英文）-2021.1-35页_7mb

Summary: Nature and Net Zero

Core Content

This consultation paper explores the role of Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) in addressing the climate and nature crises simultaneously, emphasizing their potential to deliver significant environmental, social, and economic benefits. NCS involve conservation, restoration, and improved land management to increase carbon storage and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The paper highlights the importance of integrating NCS into economic recovery strategies, particularly in the context of the post-pandemic global recovery.

Main Points

• Converging Crises: The world is facing intertwined environmental challenges: the accelerating destruction of nature and climate change. These are compounding, with significant impacts on food security, water cycles, community safety, and biodiversity.

• NCS as a Tool: NCS can avoid or reduce emissions and remove or sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. They are fundamental to achieving net-zero goals and are increasingly being recognized as key components of corporate and national climate strategies.

• Global Potential: The paper estimates that NCS could deliver up to 7GtCO₂ per year by 2030, which is sufficient to achieve around one-third of the net emission reductions required for a 1.5°C or 2°C pathway. This is significantly lower in cost than technology-based carbon removal solutions.

• Corporate Commitments: Corporate net-zero pledges have more than doubled in the past year, with many companies committing to NCS. These include Microsoft, Unilever, PepsiCo, Amazon, Nestlé, Shell, and Walmart. Companies are reducing emissions, retiring carbon credits, or investing directly in nature restoration.

• Government Involvement: 65% of global CO₂ emissions come from countries with net-zero targets, with China committing to net-zero by 2060 and the Biden administration likely to adopt a similar target.

• Co-Benefits of NCS: NCS not only help mitigate climate change but also provide co-benefits such as biodiversity protection, improved water quality, soil health, and job creation. For example, coastal wetlands protect against storms and flooding, while soil health improvements enhance cropland resilience.

• Market and Policy Challenges: Despite their potential, NCS face conceptual and technical hurdles, including lack of consensus on corporate carbon reduction claims and uncertainty about the validity of NCS credits. To unlock their potential, the paper calls for:

  • Standardization and certification under an international standards body.
  • Improved market architecture and financing mechanisms.
  • Regulatory clarity and policy frameworks that align with climate goals.
  • Building trust through multistakeholder engagement and highlighting best practices.

Key Actions for Scaling NCS

1. Define Net Zero and Corporate Claims: Establish clear definitions and requirements for net-zero commitments and carbon credit retirement to ensure consistency and transparency.

2. Highlight Good Practice for Supply: Promote best practices in NCS implementation to increase public confidence and market adoption.

3. Send a Demand Signal: Create a demand for carbon credits to build confidence and unlock the supply pipeline of NCS projects.

4. Improve Market Architecture: Develop market infrastructure and mechanisms to support the growth of NCS and tradable credits.

5. Create Regulatory Clarity: Establish national and international policy frameworks that include carbon standards, accounting rules, and connections between voluntary and compliance markets.

6. Build Trust: Increase public awareness and create multistakeholder communities to address conceptual differences and validate the integrity of NCS credits.

Key Information

• Total NCS Abatement Potential: 10.2GtCO₂ per year by 2030.
• Practical Potential: 6.7GtCO₂ per year by 2030, reflecting realistic feasibility and cost considerations.
• Cost Range: NCS typically cost between $10 and $40 per ton of CO₂, with variations by geography and project type.
• Cost Curve Analysis: Country-level cost curves were built for high-potential NCS, showing that avoided deforestation has high costs but also high co-benefits, while cover crops have lower costs and provide direct economic benefits to land operators.
• Global Distribution: The bulk of low-cost NCS potential is located in the Global South, particularly in forest-rich countries.
• Market Growth: Voluntary carbon markets have grown significantly, with NCS now accounting for around 40% of carbon credits, up from 5% in 2010.

Conclusion

This consultation paper underscores the critical role of NCS in the transition to net zero, and the urgent need for coordinated action by business leaders, policymakers, and civil society to scale up investments and overcome market and policy barriers. The integration of NCS into economic strategies is essential for a sustainable recovery and climate resilience.