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报告摘要

Summary of Industrial Securities Co., Ltd. Report (March 16, 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the Chinese stock market performance, sector analysis, and investment insights for the week of March 16, 2017. It also includes a detailed industry analysis focusing on the airports and duty-free store market, with forecasts and recommendations for investors.

Market Performance

Indices:
- SSE Composite: Closed at 3268.94, up 0.84%.
- SZSE Component: Closed at 10624.42, up 0.77%.
- ChiNext Index: Closed at 1966.73, up 0.46%.
- HSI: Closed at 24288.28, up 2.08%.
- HSCEI: Closed at 10526.46, up 2.47%.
- Aggregate Market Volume: CNY 551 billion, up 24.37% from the previous day.
Market Trends:
- Chinese stock markets opened high and fluctuated up with increased volume.
- The SHCOMP index reached its highest close in fourteen weeks, attributed to the Federal Reserve's decision to not accelerate interest rate hikes and a rally in oil prices.
- The Shanghai market attracted nearly CNY 1.3 billion inflow via SH-HK Connect, ending ten consecutive days of outflows.
Performance Ratio:
- Winners outnumbered losers by 2595-to-265.

Sector Review

Winners:

Securities Brokers: Huaan Securities (600909 SH) and Central China Securities (601375 SH) hit the ceiling price.
Communications Sector: ZTE (000063 SZ) hit the ceiling price; Kangxin New Materials (600076 SH) rose 4.58%.

Losers:

Home Appliances: Midea Group (000333 SZ) -1.28%; Hisense Electric (600060 SH) -0.98%.
Food & Beverage: Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887 SH) -1.24%; Wuliangye Yibin (000858 SZ) -1.20%.

Daily Headlines

Fed Rate Hike: The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark rate to 0.75%–1% and forecasted two more hikes in 2017.
China's U.S. Bond Holdings: China held $1.05 trillion in U.S. government bonds in January, down $7.3 billion from December.
Nanjing Restriction: The city temporarily banned local residents from purchasing third homes in downtown areas.
PBOC Actions: The central bank raised rates for reverse repurchase agreements, MLF, and SLF, following U.S. tightening.
China-Philippines Trade: China plans to purchase $1.7 billion in fruits and agricultural products from the Philippines.
Geopolitical Developments: U.S. officials warned China about potential pressure on financial institutions if they don't curb North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.
Hong Kong Monetary Authority: Raised its base rate to 1.25% from 1%.
Regulatory Actions: Hong Kong's securities regulator fined Bank of Communications for issues in its IPO work.
Nike Criticism: Nike was criticized on Chinese state TV, affecting its brand image in the second-largest market.
Petrobras Deal: Petrobras is negotiating with a Chinese consortium led by Sinopec to sell a nitrogen fertilizer plant in Brazil.

Investment Insights

China Macro:

Economic Performance: Infrastructure investment surged in January and February 2017, driven by previously reached deals.
Real Estate: Real estate investment growth recovered, with a YoY increase of 8.9%, but the spillover effect from key cities is influencing regional performance.
Automobile Consumption: Vehicle sales declined due to reduced purchase-tax-cut benefits, impacting the entire industry chain.
GDP Target: The Chinese government set a GDP growth target of 6.5% for 2017, slightly lower than the previous year's goal.

A-Share Strategy:

"One Belt, One Road" Strategy: Continued implementation, with focus on investment opportunities in Q1 and Q2 and the upcoming summit.
Financial Risk Prevention: Government is emphasizing the prevention of systematic financial risks and deleveraging measures.
Foreign Trade: Optimistic about business cooperation with the U.S., Russia, and EU, with foreign reserves expected to stabilize the RMB.
Geopolitics: Peace in the Asia-Pacific, South China Sea, and Korean Peninsula is a key concern.
Supply-side Reform: Coal power plants are being shut down to reduce overcapacity and create job opportunities.
Environmental Protection: Stricter measures on air pollution are expected, which may benefit environmental monitoring and clean energy companies.

Industry Insight: Airports

Market Changes: As operational leasing contracts for duty-free stores in domestic airports expire, the market is restructuring towards market-oriented pricing.
Airport Advantages: Airports located at major airline hubs will benefit from increased passenger traffic and non-air transportation businesses like duty-free shops.
Investment Recommendations: Maintain an 'overweight' rating for the airport sector due to its stable returns and potential growth.
Potential Risks: Economic downturn, air accidents, and failure in flight schedule expansion.

Key Tables and Data

Table 1: Lists the top 5 companies operating duty-free businesses in China.
Table 2: Ranks domestic airports by passenger traffic volume and aircraft movements.
Table 3: Compares domestic airports with major foreign airports in terms of terminal acreage, commercial use acreage, and revenue per passenger.
Table 4: Projects the compound growth rate of air traffic demand from 2015 to 2040.
Table 5–7: Estimate the elasticity of duty-free business under different sales collection percentages and scenarios, showing the potential impact of changes in airport policies.

Analysts and Contact Information

Analysts:
- Han Wang, PhD (wanghan@xyzq.com.cn)
- Xiaojun Jia (jiaxj@xyzq.com.cn)
- Yanjin Lu (luyj@xyzq.com.cn)
- Lianqing Wang (wanglq@xyzq.com.cn)
- Yijun Wang, PhD (wangyijun@xyzq.com.cn)
- Chao Duan, PhD (duanchao@xyzq.com.cn)
Assistant Analyst: LU Yang (luyang@xyzq.com.cn)

Conclusion

The report highlights the positive momentum in the Chinese stock market, driven by infrastructure investment and a more stable financial environment. However, it also warns of potential cooling in the economy and the need for careful monitoring of sector-specific risks. The airport sector is identified as a key beneficiary of market reforms, with a strong emphasis on its future growth and investment potential.

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