2020Q1美国家庭债务和信贷报告-纽约联储-2020.4-45页_1mb

2020Q1 Household Debt and Credit Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of household debt and credit developments in the first quarter of 2020, based on data from the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax. It highlights the impact of the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer credit behavior, noting that the data may not yet reflect the full economic effects due to the timing of credit report updates and the delayed reporting of missed payments.

Key Findings

Aggregate Household Debt

• Total debt balance: $14.30 trillion as of March 31, 2020.
• Increase: $155 billion in Q1 2020, a 1.1% rise.
• Comparison to historical levels:
  • $1.6 trillion higher than the 2008Q3 peak of $12.68 trillion.
  • $28.2% above the 2013Q2 trough.

Debt by Type

• Mortgage balances: $9.71 trillion, up $156 billion from 2019Q4.
• HELOC balances: $386 billion, down $4 billion from 2019Q4.
• Non-housing balances: Slightly increased, with a $27 billion rise in student loans and $15 billion in auto loans.
• Credit card balances: Seasonally declined by $34 billion, a notable decrease compared to the same period last year.
• Other balances: Declined by $5 billion.

Credit Extensions

• New credit extensions: Slightly declined from 2019Q4.
• Auto loans and leases: $150 billion in new extensions, a small decrease from the previous quarter but higher than the same quarter in 2019.
• Mortgage originations: $662 billion, down from $752 billion in Q4 2019.

Credit Standards

• Mortgage credit scores: Median increased to 773, up 14 points from the previous year.
• Auto loan credit scores: Median increased by 3 points.
• Subprime auto originations: $28 billion, similar to recent years.

Delinquency Rates

• Aggregate delinquency rate: 4.6% of outstanding debt was delinquent as of March 31, 2020.
• Serious delinquency (90+ days): $449 billion, or 32.3% of total delinquency.
• Delinquency trends: Most delinquency rates remained unchanged from the previous quarter, with a 0.1 percentage point decrease in overall delinquency.

Bankruptcies and Foreclosures

• New bankruptcies: 189,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports.
• New foreclosures: 75,000 individuals had a new foreclosure notation added to their credit reports.
• Foreclosures and bankruptcies: Both remained low by historical standards.

Detailed Breakdown by Loan Type

Mortgages

• New originations: $662 billion.
• Delinquency rate: 0.9% of current mortgage balances were 30+ days delinquent.
• Credit score: Median increased to 773.

Student Loans

• Outstanding balance: $1.54 trillion, up $27 billion from 2019Q4.
• Delinquency rate: 10.8% of student loans were 90+ days delinquent or in default.
• Transition rate: 8.9% of student loans transitioned into 90+ delinquency.

Auto Loans

• New originations: $150 billion, including both loans and leases.
• Credit score: Median increased by 3 points.
• Subprime originations: $28 billion, consistent with recent years.

Credit Cards

• Credit limit: Over $3 trillion in available credit.
• Balance decline: $34 billion seasonal drop, suggesting reduced consumer spending.
• Delinquency rate: 4.6% of outstanding credit card debt was delinquent.

By Age Group

• Total debt balance: Data is broken down by age, defined as the current year minus the borrower's birth year.
• Delinquency rates: Age-specific delinquency transitions are reported, with a 4-quarter moving average.
• Foreclosures and bankruptcies: Age-specific data is available, showing the distribution of these events across different age groups.

By State

• Total debt balance per capita: Varies by state, with data based on the population with credit reports.
• Composition of debt: Includes breakdowns by loan type and delinquency status.
• Delinquency rates: State-specific delinquency rates are provided, highlighting regional differences.
• Transition rates: Rates into delinquency (30+ and 90+ days) are reported by state, with a 4-quarter moving average.

Methodology and Notes

• Data source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax, a 5% random sample of individuals with credit reports.
• Sample size: A 2% subsample was used for most analyses, resulting in a 0.1% sample for the final results.
• Exclusions: Authorized users, disputed trades, lost/stolen trades, medical debts, child/family support, commercial accounts, and inactive accounts (not reported in the last 3 months) are excluded.
• Credit utilization: Likely overestimated due to the use of the highest-balance measure instead of the actual credit limit.
• High credit and balance for HELOCs: Similar to credit cards, with the highest balance ever reported used for credit limit calculations.

Conclusion

The report shows that while household debt increased in the first quarter of 2020, the effects of the pandemic were not yet fully reflected in the data due to the timing of credit report updates and the delayed reporting of missed payments. Credit standards tightened slightly, and delinquency rates remained largely stable. Student loans showed the highest delinquency rates, while mortgage and auto loan delinquency rates were lower. The data provides valuable insights into the credit behavior and financial health of U.S. households, with regional and age-specific variations highlighted.