2009年-世界发展银行全球_The_Trade_Response_to_Global_Downturns___Historical_Evidence_30页_300kb

The Trade Response to Global Downturns: Historical Evidence

Core Content

This working paper by Caroline Freund analyzes the impact of global downturns on trade flows, drawing on historical data to provide insights into the current financial crisis. The study identifies four major global downturns: 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2001, and examines how trade responds to economic contractions. It also explores the implications for global imbalances, regional differences, and industry-specific impacts.

Main Points

• Trade Elasticity to Income: The elasticity of global trade volumes to real GDP has increased over time, from around 2 in the 1960s to above 3.5 currently. This means that trade is more sensitive to changes in income during downturns than in stable periods.

• Trade Contraction During Downturns: Trade contracts more sharply than GDP during global downturns. The author estimates that the decline in real trade could exceed 15% in 2009, with some projections suggesting a 20% drop. Trade tends to rebound quickly once the outlook improves, but it takes more than three years for trade openness to return to pre-downturn levels.

• Regional and Industry Impacts:

  • Deficit Countries: Regions like Latin America, East Asia, Europe, and the Middle East and North Africa tend to see a reduction in trade deficits during downturns, while North America experiences a temporary improvement followed by a rebound in deficits.
  • Surplus Countries: Surplus regions typically see only temporary reversals in trade balances.
  • Industries: Food and beverages are the least affected, while crude materials and fuels are the most affected. Durable goods such as washing machines and refrigerators experience slower recovery, and trade in automobiles shows a quick dip and rebound.

• Global Imbalances: Trade declines more than GDP, which can lead to improvements in the trade balance to GDP ratio, especially in borrower countries. However, these improvements are often short-lived unless there is a shift in investment behavior or government policies.

• Banking Crises and Trade: Countries that experienced banking crises during the 1991 downturn, such as Finland, Sweden, and Japan, showed similar trade responses to the rest of the world, with a rapid rebound in trade even as GDP recovery was slower.

• Product-Level Analysis: Trade value declines more than trade volume, largely due to falling commodity prices. The study uses Comtrade data to analyze the effects across industries and regions, highlighting the significant role of global production fragmentation and lean retailing in amplifying trade sensitivity to income changes.

Key Findings

• Trade is more responsive to GDP during global downturns than in normal times.
• The global trade contraction during the 2009 crisis is expected to be more severe than previous downturns.
• Food and beverages are the least affected products, while crude materials and fuels are the most affected.
• Trade tends to rebound quickly after downturns, though it takes more than three years to return to pre-downturn levels.
• Global imbalances may improve temporarily, but this is not sustained unless there is a policy shift.
• The role of global production fragmentation and lean retailing is critical in explaining the heightened trade sensitivity to economic changes.
• Banking crises do not significantly exacerbate trade declines during downturns, but they do affect the speed of recovery.

Methodology

• The paper identifies global downturns using specific criteria:
  • World real GDP growth below 2%.
  • A drop of more than 1.5 percentage points from the previous 5-year average.
  • Minimum growth over the period surrounding the downturn.
• Data on real GDP and trade flows is sourced from the World Development Indicators.
• The study compares trade and GDP growth across historical downturns and analyzes the impact at the regional and industry level.

Conclusion

The paper suggests that trade is highly sensitive to global economic downturns and that the current crisis may lead to a significant drop in trade volumes. While trade rebounds quickly, the process of recovery is slow. The study emphasizes the importance of policy responses to prevent the re-emergence of pre-crisis imbalances, particularly through encouraging savings in the U.S. and stimulating spending in Asia. It also highlights the need for understanding the role of global production networks and trade finance in shaping trade responses during economic downturns.