2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Uzbekistan_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_70页_2mb

2018 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Uzbekistan Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Article IV consultation with the Republic of Uzbekistan, conducted by the IMF, assessed the country's economic developments, policy reforms, and outlook. The consultation highlighted the impact of external shocks since 2014, which reduced exports, commodity prices, and remittances, leading to a slowdown in growth and inflationary pressures. The country has initiated significant reforms to liberalize the economy, improve fiscal transparency, and promote structural changes.

Main Points

Economic Developments and Outlook

• Growth: Growth slowed from around 8 percent in 2016 to 5 percent in 2017, and is projected to remain at 5 percent in 2018-19.
• Inflation: Inflation rose sharply in late 2017 and early 2018, reaching about 20 percent, due to price and exchange rate liberalization. It is expected to decline gradually to single digits by 2019.
• Employment: Domestic employment growth remained low, averaging below one percent in 2015-17.
• External Position: Uzbekistan's external position was strong in 2017, with international reserves equivalent to 19 months of imports and low public debt (24.5 percent of GDP).

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit, including the Fund for Reconstruction and Development (FRD), rose to 3.25 percent of GDP in 2017, but is expected to decline to 1.25 percent in 2018.
• Public Debt: Public debt is considered low and sustainable.
• Transparency: The government plans to bring all operations on budget in 2019 to improve transparency.
• Tax Reform: A comprehensive tax reform is needed to stimulate job creation and ensure revenue neutrality.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy

• Monetary Tightening: Tightening monetary policy, including raising the refinancing rate from 9 to 14 percent, is necessary to bring inflation down.
• Exchange Rate Liberalization: The FX market was liberalized in September 2017, with the official exchange rate depreciating by about 50 percent.
• Central Bank Independence: The central bank should increase its independence to support inflation targeting in the medium term.

Financial Stability

• Banking System: The banking system is reported to be sound, with a capital adequacy ratio of 19 percent and a non-performing loan ratio of 1.2 percent.
• Credit Market Segmentation: Credit is heavily concentrated in state enterprises, which have preferential access to financial resources.
• Asset Quality: The concentration of loans in state enterprises could lead to a deterioration in asset quality if reforms are not properly managed.

Structural Reforms

• State Enterprise Restructuring: Restructuring state enterprises is a key priority to improve efficiency and competitiveness.
• Trade and Price Liberalization: Continued liberalization of prices and trade is encouraged, especially for energy prices to reach cost-recovery levels.
• Competition: Measures to strengthen domestic competition are needed to support economic growth.

Economic Statistics

• Improvements: The authorities have made progress in improving the quality and availability of economic statistics.
• e-GDDS Participation: Uzbekistan is participating in the IMF's enhanced General Data Dissemination System (e-GDDS), and further improvements toward the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) are expected.

Key Information

• External Shocks: Adverse external shocks since 2014 have affected exports, commodity prices, and remittances, contributing to a slowdown in growth and a surge in inflation.
• Reforms: Uzbekistan has implemented significant reforms, including FX liberalization, price liberalization, and improvements in governance and transparency.
• Risks: Both external and domestic risks are identified, including potential slowdowns in trading partners, lower commodity prices, and challenges in implementing reforms.
• IMF Recommendations: The IMF encourages the continuation of structural reforms, fiscal discipline, and monetary tightening to stabilize inflation and promote sustainable growth.

Summary of Executive Board Assessment

• Reforms: The Executive Board welcomed the comprehensive reform program initiated by Uzbekistan, aimed at opening the economy and promoting inclusive growth.
• Fiscal Policy: They emphasized the need for prudent fiscal policies and a revenue-neutral, gradual tax reform to ensure long-term stability.
• Monetary Policy: Tightening monetary policy and moving toward inflation targeting are necessary, supported by increasing central bank independence.
• Financial Sector: The Board acknowledged the soundness of the financial sector but highlighted the need for measures to address credit market segmentation and ensure financial stability.
• Structural Reforms: They encouraged continued efforts in restructuring state enterprises and promoting domestic competition.
• Data Transparency: The authorities are making progress in improving economic statistics and participating in the e-GDDS, with further improvements toward the SDDS expected.

Conclusion

The IMF's 2018 Article IV consultation with Uzbekistan concluded that the country has made significant strides in economic liberalization and reform. However, challenges remain, particularly in managing inflation, ensuring fiscal transparency, and addressing structural issues in the financial sector. The Board encouraged continued reform efforts and prudent macroeconomic policies to support sustainable growth and stability.