2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_74页_1mb

报告摘要

2018 Article IV Consultation with the Islamic Republic of Iran Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Article IV consultation with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) focused on macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, and the challenges facing the Iranian economy. The consultation was conducted through bilateral discussions, with the Executive Board concluding its review on March 21, 2018. The report includes a Staff Report, a Press Release, and a Statement by the Executive Director, highlighting the economic developments, outlook, and policy recommendations.

Main Economic Developments

Growth Recovery: After a strong rebound following the 2016 nuclear agreement, real GDP growth reached 4.3% in 2017/18. The recovery broadened to the non-oil sector, driven by supportive fiscal and monetary policies and improved activity in construction and services.
Unemployment: The unemployment rate declined to 11.7% in the first half of 2017/18, but remained particularly high for youth and women.
Inflation: Inflation averaged 9.9% during the first 11 months of 2017/18, aided by moderation in food prices and stable administered prices. However, depreciation of the Rial kept inflation in double digits for the remainder of the year.
Exchange Rate Volatility: The gap between the official and market exchange rates widened to nearly 30% in mid-February 2018, but narrowed to under 20% after the CBI introduced Rial and foreign-exchange indexed CDs.
Current Account Surplus: Iran maintained a current account surplus, reaching 4.3% of GDP in 2017/18, supported by improved oil prices and higher gas exports. However, reserves fell by $8.7 billion between end-March 2017 and early 2018 due to capital outflows and difficulties in accessing export earnings.
FDI and Trade: FDI approvals rebounded in 2016/17 but materialized slowly. Trade credits increased due to export earnings transfer issues, while non-oil exports remained sluggish, with petrochemicals and mineral fuels growing at the expense of machinery.

Outlook and Risks

Growth Projection: Real GDP growth is expected to ease to 4% in 2018/19, with a medium-term average of 4.5%.
Uncertainty: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially with the U.S., and domestic uncertainties are expected to keep FDI subdued and hinder the expansion of Correspondent Bank Relations (CBRs).
Inflation: Inflation is projected to remain around 12% in 2018/19, constrained by liquidity growth control and the effects of the exchange rate depreciation.
Unemployment: The pace of job creation is insufficient to absorb new entrants into the labor market, keeping unemployment above 11%.

Key Policy Discussions

Financial Sector Reform

Priority: Financial sector reform is a top priority, including recapitalization and restructuring of viable banks, resolution of non-viable ones, and completion of AML/CFT reforms.
AML/CFT: The IMF welcomed progress in strengthening the AML/CFT framework and encouraged timely passage and implementation of amendments in line with the FATF action plan.
Central Bank Autonomy: The new Central Bank Law should enhance the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) autonomy and make price stability the core monetary policy objective.

Monetary Policy Framework

Exchange Rate Unification: Unifying the dual exchange rate is critical to reduce FX pressures and promote competitiveness.
Monetary Conditions: Tight monetary conditions and a clear communication strategy are necessary to support the transition to a market-based monetary policy framework.
Securitization: Securitizing government debt to the CBI and granting it full autonomy are recommended to stabilize inflation.

Fiscal Sustainability

Fiscal Deficit: The central government's cash-based fiscal deficit was contained at 2.3% of GDP in 2017/18, while the non-oil deficit improved to 8.7% of non-oil GDP.
Fiscal Adjustments: Gradual fiscal adjustments are needed, focusing on tax revenue mobilization, removal of exemptions, reduction of fuel subsidies, and pension system reform.
Debt Management: A medium-term debt management strategy is encouraged to ensure fiscal sustainability and support growth.

Growth and Job Creation

Private Sector Development: Deep structural reforms are needed to boost the private sector and create jobs for the highly educated youth.
Business Climate: Improving the business environment by reducing red tape, modernizing regulations, and strengthening the bankruptcy framework is essential.
Gender Inclusion: Encouraging greater female labor force participation through policy reforms and child care subsidies is recommended.
Data Transparency: Enhancing the quality, timeliness, and availability of data is crucial for effective policy-making.

Key Indicators

Indicator	2015/16	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23
Real GDP at factor cost	-1.6%	12.5%	4.3%	4.0%	4.0%	4.1%	4.2%	4.4%
CPI Inflation (average)	11.9%	9.1%	9.9%	12.1%	11.5%	11.7%	11.3%	10.8%
Unemployment rate	11.0%	12.4%	11.7%	11.6%	11.4%	11.4%	11.2%
Current account balance	0.3%	4.0%	4.3%	7.0%	6.3%	5.8%	5.8%	5.9%
Gross Public Debt	42.3%	49.1%	40.9%	53.9%	49.2%	45.6%	42.6%	40.0%
Net foreign assets	14.4%	-3.9%	-0.1%	36.4%	50.5%	21.5%	25.7%	22.8%
Net domestic assets	41.5%	39.3%	33.2%	20.0%	9.7%	19.0%	15.4%	13.8%
Real oil GDP	7.2%	61.6%	5.2%	4.6%	3.7%	3.8%	4.0%	4.0%
Real non-oil GDP	-3.1%	3.3%	4.0%	3.8%	4.1%	4.2%	4.2%	4.5%
Public debt	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	1.1%	1.2%	1.2%	1.2%	1.2%
Private debt	20.8%	17.7%	18.6%	17.8%	20.0%	21.1%	22.2%	23.1%
Total fixed capital investment	23.3%	20.9%	20.9%	21.5%	22.5%	23.6%	24.7%	25.7%
Gross national savings	35.2%	37.6%	40.4%	43.2%	43.0%	42.9%	43.5%	44.2%
Oil revenue	6.0%	5.8%	5.4%	9.0%	9.5%	9.4%	9.4%	9.3%

Key Recommendations

Financial Sector: Comprehensive restructuring and recapitalization of banks, including resolving non-viable institutions and strengthening the CBI's supervisory and resolution powers.
Monetary Policy: Transition to a market-based framework, unify the dual exchange rate, and ensure the CBI has full autonomy to pursue price stability.
Fiscal Policy: Broad-based, growth-friendly measures to contain deficits and debt, with a focus on tax reforms, subsidy reductions, and pension system improvements.
Structural Reforms: Diversify the economy, improve the business climate, and increase female labor participation.
Data Transparency: Enhance the quality, timeliness, and availability of economic data to support informed policy decisions.

Conclusion

The IMF acknowledged Iran's macroeconomic progress but emphasized the need for deeper reforms to address structural bottlenecks, enhance financial sector stability, and promote sustainable growth. The authorities are encouraged to pursue a balanced approach that supports macroeconomic stability while addressing the challenges of high unemployment, inflation, and economic diversification.

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