2025-02-09-世界银行-赞比亚_国家私营部门诊断（英）_98页_13mb

Zambia Country Private Sector Diagnostic Summary

Introduction

Zambia has the potential to attract significant private investment to drive inclusive, sustainable growth across key sectors. The four selected sectors—copper mining, solar power, maize and other grain production, and tourism—were chosen for deep analysis due to their development impact and potential to address investor constraints. Public reforms can unlock investments that would boost GDP, create jobs, and enhance revenue collection by 2030.

Mining of Copper and Other Energy Transition Minerals

Sector Overview

• Zambia is Africa’s 2nd-largest copper producer, with one of the highest copper grades.
• Copper mining contributes 15% to GDP, 70% to exports, and 44% to government revenues.
• Investment opportunities exist for expanding copper and critical minerals (manganese, nickel)—critical for the energy transition.

Key Constraints

1. Policy Uncertainty: The frequent changes in mining taxes and unclear regulations create investment uncertainty.
2. Geological Data Deficiencies: Only 55% of Zambia is mapped, hinders exploration.
3. Licensing Complexities: Lengthy, opaque approval processes discourage entry.
4. Infrastructure Limitations: Unreliable power and transport costs impact output.

Priority Recommendations

• Stabilize the policy environment.
• Digitize geological data and democratize access.
• Simplify licensing and streamline cadastre management.
• Upgrade infrastructure for power and transport.

Investment Potential: Copper mining could attract $6–$18 billion by 2030, creating 80,000–230,000 jobs.

Solar Power

Sector Overview

• Solar PV is a cost-effective solution to Zambia’s reliance on hydropower.
• Solar generation can complement mining and residential demand.
• Potential for regional hub status and electricity exports.

Key Constraints

• Unclear grid codes, transmission limitations, and political economy issues hinder private investment.
• ZESCO’s weak financial standing undermines its role as an off-taker.

Priority Recommendations

• Update the Integrated Resource Plan to reflect realistic timelines.
• Implement open grid access and transparent transmission tariffs.
• Strengthen ZESCO’s financials and enforce cost-reflective pricing.
• Promote private transmission operators (IPT).

Investment Potential: Solar could attract $0.4–$1.1 billion, adding 3,000–8,000 jobs.

Maize, Wheat, and Soybean Production

Sector Overview

• Zambia has fertile land, high crop potential, and strong domestic/ regional markets.
• Large commercial farms (LCFs) drive high productivity (e.g., maize yields of 10 MT/ha under irrigation).

Key Constraints

• Fragmented government intervention (FISP, FRA) distorts prices and limits competitiveness.
• Land acquisition processes are complex and costly.
• Access to finance and skilled labor remains a challenge.

Priority Recommendations

• Reallocate FISP and FRA funding to productive infrastructure.
• Simplify land registration, permitting, and dispute resolution.
• Strengthen policy consistency and enhance agricultural market reforms.

Investment Potential: Grain sector could attract $0.3–$1.5 billion, creating 20,000–60,000 jobs.

Tourism

Sector Overview

• Nature-based tourism (game lodges) and conferences/ events (MICE) offer notable growth.
• Tourism employs ~450,000 people and contributes 6.2% to GDP; regional but untapped potential.

Key Constraints

• Multi-layered tourism licensing discourages investment.
• Poor infrastructure (roads, electricity, airports) and limited branding have constrained growth.
• Complex concession frameworks in parks hinder the growth of high-quality tourism.

Priority Recommendations

• Harmonize tourism licenses into a unified, digital system.
• Establish a Convention Bureau for dedicated promotion and MICE support.
• Revamp the Wildlife Bill to clarify concession frameworks and CMPs.

Investment Potential: Hotel construction could cost $35 million–$100 million, creating 2,000–6,000 jobs.

Path Ahead: Key Takeaways

• Political stability and the post-debt crisis create openings for diversified growth.
• Four priority reforms are needed across all four sectors to unlock $21 billion in investment and over 580,000 jobs by 2030.
• Improving predictability, transparency, and infrastructure will boost private sector dynamism, inclusive growth, and sustainable development.